Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:02:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5b57…6359 other 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 600d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$291 (-7%) realized −$266 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%14W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$211
7 days+$130
14 days−$18
30 days−$598
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$984
politics 23% +$495
sports 8% +$319
economics 5% −$200
crypto 3% +$51
world 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -1.6% -11.0% 36% 36% +0.5%
≤30d 31 +2.8% -7.0% 32% 32% -32.9%
≤90d 31 +2.8% -7.0% 32% 32% -32.9%
all 38 +17.6% +6.4% 37% 37% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.4% 37% -16.2%
10% -3.8% 37% -24.2%
15% -13.1% 34% -31.5%
20% -21.6% 26% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +29% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$133 vs −$90 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

600d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized−$266
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses14 / 24
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions5
Markets (closed)38 / 45
History coverage600d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 IR Iran? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 IR Iran? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 2 Saudi Arabia? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $20 $12 −$8 (-39%)
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $20 $9 −$11 (-53%)
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 3 Saudi Arabia? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$53 +52%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$71 +70%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $21 +$104 +510%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$63 +62%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? Jun 19 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? Jun 19 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $51 +$68 +134%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 +$227 +442%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$44 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$50 +50%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 +$61 +596%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $202 −$200 -99%
Shanghai Sharks vs. Zhejiang Lions Jun 05 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $102 +$231 +226%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $366 −$360 -98%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? May 30 $100 −$100 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? May 30 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $153 −$150 -98%
Over $40M committed to the Solomon public sale? Nov 19 $33 +$207 +620%
Over $30M committed to the Loyal raise on MetaDAO? Oct 23 $90 −$90 -100%
Over $100M committed to the Avici Raise on MetaDAO? Oct 18 $10 +$3 +28%
Will Spain win the UEFA Nations League? Sep 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Inter win on 2025-05-31? Sep 17 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Portugal win the UEFA Nations League? Sep 17 $100 +$186 +186%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $993 +$495 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 IR Iran? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 2h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 2h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 3 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 2 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 1¢ $21 2h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 43¢ $102 8h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY 7¢ $103 8h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 23h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 31h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 31h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 31h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 31h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 31h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 2d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 2d
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 2d
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 2d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 3d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $51 4d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 4d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 4d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 4d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 5d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $202 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.45 · official $265.45 · 70 history records