Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T15:23:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5b56…eec8 sports 205 markets active 0h ago coverage 165d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,411 (-11%) realized −$1,406 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate58%117W / 86L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$605now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$184
7 days−$40
14 days−$40
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 40% −$19
other 29% −$1,135
crypto 29% −$311
world 1% −$3
economics 1% +$1
politics 0% −$2
finance 0% −$3
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 -1.0% -10.4% 81% 24% -10.1%
≤30d 63 -1.0% -10.4% 81% 24% -10.1%
≤90d 63 -1.0% -10.4% 81% 24% -10.1%
all 203 -8.1% -16.8% 58% 29% -20.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 29% -20.8%
10% -24.8% 22% -28.4%
15% -32.0% 17% -35.3%
20% -38.7% 14% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$28 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$605
Realized−$1,406
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses117 / 86
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)203 / 205
History coverage165d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 203 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Piracicaba: Paulo Dos Santos vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida 92¢ 91¢ $600 $596 −$4 (-1%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 66¢ 64¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Targu Mures: Sumit Nagal vs Cezar Cretu Jun 26 $6 −$2 -35%
Piracicaba: Matias Soto vs Gonzalo Villanueva Jun 26 $100 −$39 -39%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel Jun 26 $16 −$1 -9%
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Karolina Muchova Jun 26 $10 +$3 +26%
Plovdiv: Andres Santamarta vs Inaki Montes Jun 26 $15 +$4 +25%
Mallorca Championships: Nuno Borges vs Ethan Quinn Jun 26 $130 +$3 +3%
Piracicaba: Juan Bautista Torres vs Joaquin Aguilar Jun 26 $2 −$1 -54%
Piracicaba: Valerio Aboian vs Hernan Casanova Jun 26 $2 $0 -22%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Petra Marcinko vs Madison Keys Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Bad Homburg Open: Xinyu Wang vs Naomi Osaka Jun 26 $100 +$7 +7%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $120 +$6 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 25 $100 −$1 -1%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $201 −$200 -100%
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Vit Kopriva Jun 25 $15 +$10 +64%
Targu Mures (Doubles): Constantin/Gima vs Loof/Uesugi Jun 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 +$8 +38%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $300 $0 +0%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $100 +$13 +13%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $100 $0 +0%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $100 +$4 +4%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Clement Tabur Jun 24 $100 +$4 +4%
Plovdiv: Matteo Martineau vs Petr Nesterov Jun 24 $10 $0 +3%
Targu Mures: Niels McDonald vs Francesco Passaro Jun 24 $6 +$1 +12%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 +$3 +14%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $100 +$13 +13%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $100 +$5 +5%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $300 +$1 +0%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $100 +$4 +4%
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) Jun 23 $130 +$5 +4%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $100 +$1 +1%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Elizabeth Mandlik vs Alina Charaeva Jun 23 $10 +$1 +5%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Polina Kudermetova vs Jessika Ponchet Jun 23 $241 +$9 +4%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Ashlyn Krueger vs Gabriela Knutson Jun 23 $25 +$2 +9%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Polina Iatcenko vs Leyre Romero Gormaz Jun 23 $20 +$1 +7%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Alice Rame vs Caroline Werner Jun 23 $150 +$3 +2%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Justina Mikulskyte vs Carol Zhao Jun 23 $37 +$6 +18%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Panna Udvardy vs Anna Bondar Jun 23 $2 +$1 +42%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maddison Inglis vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 23 $3 +$2 +73%
Bad Homburg Open: Ann Li vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 23 $10 +$2 +20%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 +$9 +9%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $300 +$4 +1%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $100 +$2 +2%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $20 +$1 +7%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $2 −$2 -99%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $165 +$7 +4%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $20 +$1 +3%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Piracicaba: Paulo Dos Santos vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida BUY Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida 92¢ $602 14m
Targu Mures: Sumit Nagal vs Cezar Cretu SELL Sumit Nagal 49¢ $2 28m
Piracicaba: Paulo Dos Santos vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida SELL Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida 67¢ $36 30m
Piracicaba: Matias Soto vs Gonzalo Villanueva SELL Matias Soto 56¢ $61 31m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel SELL Zizou Bergs 7¢ $12 32m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel BUY Zizou Bergs 6¢ $10 35m
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Karolina Muchova SELL Karolina Muchova 82¢ $13 38m
Piracicaba: Juan Bautista Torres vs Joaquin Aguilar SELL Juan Bautista Torres 12¢ $1 39m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel BUY Zizou Bergs 32¢ $3 46m
Targu Mures: Sumit Nagal vs Cezar Cretu BUY Sumit Nagal 76¢ $4 49m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel SELL Zizou Bergs 35¢ $2 50m
Targu Mures: Sumit Nagal vs Cezar Cretu SELL Cezar Cretu 19¢ $1 50m
Piracicaba: Valerio Aboian vs Hernan Casanova SELL Valerio Aboian 30¢ $2 52m
Piracicaba: Juan Bautista Torres vs Joaquin Aguilar BUY Juan Bautista Torres 25¢ $2 59m
Piracicaba: Valerio Aboian vs Hernan Casanova BUY Valerio Aboian 37¢ $2 1h
Targu Mures: Sumit Nagal vs Cezar Cretu BUY Cezar Cretu 26¢ $2 1h
Piracicaba: Paulo Dos Santos vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida BUY Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida 93¢ $50 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel BUY Zizou Bergs 31¢ $2 1h
Piracicaba: Matias Soto vs Gonzalo Villanueva BUY Matias Soto 90¢ $100 1h
Mallorca Championships: Nuno Borges vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ethan Quinn 100¢ $100 1h
Mallorca Championships: Nuno Borges vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ethan Quinn 100¢ $10 1h
Mallorca Championships: Nuno Borges vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ethan Quinn 99¢ $10 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Karolina Muchova BUY Karolina Muchova 64¢ $10 1h
Mallorca Championships: Nuno Borges vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ethan Quinn 76¢ $10 1h
Plovdiv: Andres Santamarta vs Inaki Montes SELL Andres Santamarta 11¢ $2 1h
Plovdiv: Andres Santamarta vs Inaki Montes BUY Andres Santamarta 22¢ $5 2h
Plovdiv: Andres Santamarta vs Inaki Montes BUY Inaki Montes 60¢ $10 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Petra Marcinko vs Madison Keys BUY Petra Marcinko 0¢ $1 2h
Bad Homburg Open: Xinyu Wang vs Naomi Osaka BUY Naomi Osaka 93¢ $100 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $99 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $605.32 · official $605.32 (match) · 580 history records