Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:53:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5b55…9089 sports 651 markets active 11h ago coverage 155d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$222 (+12%) realized +$221 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%351W / 295L
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$80now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$38
7 days−$80
14 days−$80
30 days−$79
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 45% −$111
other 35% +$386
crypto 15% −$63
politics 2% −$15
world 2% +$12
economics 0% +$4
tech 0% $0
weather 0% −$2
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -18.0% -25.8% 38% 38% -24.9%
≤30d 27 -20.0% -27.6% 37% 37% -24.5%
≤90d 35 -32.8% -39.2% 31% 31% -29.3%
all 646 -2.0% -11.4% 54% 54% -19.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 54% -19.0%
10% -19.8% 50% -26.7%
15% -27.6% 44% -33.8%
20% -34.7% 35% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

155d coverage
Net worth$80
Realized+$221
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses351 / 295
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)646 / 651
History coverage155d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 646 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 50¢ 56¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+13%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 60¢ 57¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 135 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 +$5 +34%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $35 +$15 +42%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 +$5 +52%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $27 +$13 +48%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $16 +$14 +93%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$4 -39%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $19 −$1 -3%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $19 +$11 +57%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $76 −$75 -99%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $25 +$25 +101%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $16 −$16 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $28 +$12 +44%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $22 +$38 +172%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 11 $21 −$20 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 11 $18 −$18 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $17 −$17 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $30 −$30 -99%
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Jun 11 $19 −$2 -10%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 11 $7 −$1 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on May 29? May 29 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on May 22? May 21 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET May 21 $3 +$3 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET May 06 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Apr 27 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Apr 24 $1 +$1 +93%
Madrid Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alex Michelsen Apr 24 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 8PM ET Mar 22 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Mar 22 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Mar 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 20, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Mar 20 $7 −$7 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Mar 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Mar 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Mar 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Mar 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Mar 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Mar 16 $5 +$4 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Mar 14 $11 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Mar 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Mar 14 $15 +$13 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Mar 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Mar 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $10 10h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) SELL Japan 72¢ $9 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 18¢ $6 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 47¢ $18 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 2d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Japan 76¢ $10 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $15 2d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 61¢ $40 3d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 61¢ $35 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 3d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 1.5 BUY Over 46¢ $5 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $16 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $9 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 50¢ $15 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $15 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $15 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 60¢ $12 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $23 6d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 74¢ $15 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 70¢ $14 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $27 6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $21 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 59¢ $18 6d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 40¢ $12 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $19 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $19 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 51¢ $16 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 36¢ $22 6d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $16 6d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $17 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.39 · official $80.40 (match) · 1347 history records