Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:16:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

5B 0x5b54…286d sports 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$172 (-47%) realized −$168 · open −$4

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip

Net edge-12%after slip

Net WR41%break-even

Win rate41%7W / 10L

Drawdown75%max

Avg bet$20per market

Trades / day2.9pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit78%portable

Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$1

7 days+$2

14 days+$6

30 days+$6

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +41%

net ROI/market (all)-12.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	16	-8.3%	-17.0%	38%	38%	-5.6%
≤30d	17	-3.0%	-12.3%	41%	41%	+0.6%
≤90d	17	-3.0%	-12.3%	41%	41%	+0.6%
all	17	-3.0%	-12.3%	41%	41%	+0.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.9 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-12.3%	41%	+0.6%
10%	-20.7%	35%	-9.0%
15%	-28.3%	35%	-17.8%
20%	-35.4%	29%	-25.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 31% · top 2 57% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -3% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -10% → late +3% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.74 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.22 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage

Net worth$26

Realized−$168

Unrealized−$4

Win rate (resolved)41%

Wins / losses7 / 10

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)17 / 18

History coverage10d

Avg bet$20

Trades / day2.9

Drawdown75%

Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 17 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$30	$26	−$4 (-12%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: Neither team to score first?	Jun 17	$5	−$5	-97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score	Jun 17	$1	−$1	-98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Draw at halftime?	Jun 17	$3	−$3	-98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$2	−$2	-98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$5	+$2	+48%
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime?	Jun 16	$3	+$5	+152%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in Second Half	Jun 16	$3	+$9	+307%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in First Half	Jun 16	$3	+$1	+21%
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime?	Jun 16	$5	−$5	-98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$3	−$3	-98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime?	Jun 15	$3	−$3	-98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$2	−$2	-98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score	Jun 14	$3	+$4	+124%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	Jun 14	$5	+$11	+216%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Neither team to score first?	Jun 14	$3	−$3	-98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan?	Jun 14	$3	−$3	-98%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Jun 08	$5	+$4	+81%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect	BUY Yes	1¢	$31	1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Neither team to score first?	BUY Yes	12¢	$5	20h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	47¢	$1	20h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Draw at halftime?	BUY Yes	42¢	$3	20h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	14¢	$2	20h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in Second Half	BUY Yes	24¢	$3	40h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in First Half	BUY No	82¢	$3	40h
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime?	BUY Yes	39¢	$3	40h
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime?	BUY Yes	32¢	$5	40h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$5	40h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	35¢	$3	2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime?	BUY Yes	23¢	$3	2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	48¢	$2	2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$16	2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Neither team to score first?	BUY Yes	15¢	$3	3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan?	BUY Yes	16¢	$3	3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	31¢	$5	3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	44¢	$3	3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect	SELL Yes	1¢	$35	4d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect	BUY Yes	8¢	$195	7d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect	BUY Yes	7¢	$18	7d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect	BUY Yes	11¢	$12	8d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect	BUY Yes	17¢	$4	9d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect	BUY Yes	32¢	$15	9d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect	BUY Yes	32¢	$3	9d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	SELL Yes	66¢	$9	9d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	BUY Yes	35¢	$5	9d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect	SELL Yes	46¢	$48	9d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect	BUY Yes	20¢	$14	9d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect	BUY Yes	33¢	$14	10d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.25 · official $26.25 (match) · 36 history records