Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:49:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5b53…95c4 sports 291 markets active 0h ago coverage 180d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$482 (-8%) realized −$311 · open −$171
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate39%112W / 176L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$76est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$102now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$181
7 days+$191
14 days+$123
30 days+$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$717
other 4% −$88
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +19.2% +7.8% 56% 56% +18.6%
≤30d 105 -4.4% -13.5% 39% 39% -8.1%
≤90d 235 -7.7% -16.5% 40% 39% -13.1%
all 288 -11.2% -19.6% 39% 38% -19.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.6% 38% -19.7%
10% -27.3% 36% -27.4%
15% -34.3% 35% -34.4%
20% -40.8% 34% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$19 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

180d coverage
Net worth$102
Realized−$311
Unrealized−$171
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses112 / 176
Est. fees paid−$76
Open positions4
Markets (closed)288 / 291
History coverage180d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 288 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Under 71¢ 73¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Notts County FC vs. Salford City FC: O/U 3.5 Over 38¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-99%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Under 61¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Under 41¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 162 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Smouha SC win on 2026-02-12? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $103 +$18 +18%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $42 +$69 +165%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $52 −$51 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $52 +$59 +114%
Wydad Athletic Club vs. FathUnionSport: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $25 +$28 +110%
US Yacoub El Mansour vs. HUS Agadir: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $25 +$25 +97%
Wydad Athletic Club vs. FathUnionSport: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $52 −$51 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $25 +$41 +160%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $42 +$53 +126%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20 +$22 +109%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $17 +$37 +216%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $31 −$31 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $8 −$8 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $11 −$11 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $9 +$10 +109%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $11 −$11 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Fortaleza EC vs. América FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$13 +130%
Fortaleza EC vs. América FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $6 −$6 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $17 +$10 +59%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $11 +$12 +105%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $7 +$4 +60%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Canada vs. Republic of Ireland: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $20 −$19 -98%
Paraguay vs. Nicaragua: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $15 −$9 -58%
Kamatamare Sanuki vs. AC Nagano Parceiro: O/U 0.5 Jun 05 $20 −$19 -98%
Kamatamare Sanuki vs. AC Nagano Parceiro: O/U 1.5 Jun 05 $21 −$20 -98%
AS FAR vs. Difaâ Hassani El Jadida: O/U 3.5 Jun 04 $20 −$20 -98%
HUS Agadir vs. FathUnionSport: O/U 0.5 Jun 04 $21 −$21 -98%
Albania vs. Israel: O/U 1.5 Jun 03 $21 −$21 -98%
RCA Zemamra vs. US Yacoub El Mansour: O/U 3.5 Jun 03 $21 −$21 -98%
Wales vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 02 $15 +$26 +172%
Wales vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 02 $15 −$15 -98%
Georgia vs. Romania: O/U 2.5 Jun 02 $11 −$11 -98%
CA Mineiro vs. Academia Puerto Cabello: O/U 1.5 May 27 $12 −$12 -98%
Independiente del Valle vs. CA Rosario Central: O/U 2.5 May 27 $25 −$13 -52%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.5 May 27 $25 −$24 -98%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 2.5 May 27 $25 −$25 -98%
CR Flamengo vs. Cusco FC: O/U 2.5 May 27 $36 +$49 +138%
Santos FC vs. CD Cuenca: O/U 3.5 May 27 $22 −$22 -98%
Grêmio FBPA vs. Montevideo City Torque: O/U 3.5 May 26 $11 +$27 +248%
CA Lanús vs. Mirassol FC: O/U 1.5 May 26 $10 −$10 -98%
CA Lanús vs. Mirassol FC: O/U 2.5 May 26 $11 −$11 -98%
Saint-Etienne vs. Nice: O/U 0.5 May 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Saint-Etienne vs. Nice: O/U 2.5 May 26 $27 −$27 -98%
Coritiba FBC vs. EC Bahia: O/U 4.5 May 26 $14 +$23 +158%
Coritiba FBC vs. EC Bahia: O/U 2.5 May 26 $21 +$35 +166%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-05-25? May 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 71¢ $101 17m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 61¢ $101 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $51 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 37¢ $42 3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $51 3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 43¢ $52 3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 19¢ $21 3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 46¢ $52 3h
Wydad Athletic Club vs. FathUnionSport: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $0 7h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $52 7h
US Yacoub El Mansour vs. HUS Agadir: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $50 7h
Wydad Athletic Club vs. FathUnionSport: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $53 7h
Wydad Athletic Club vs. FathUnionSport: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 60¢ $52 8h
US Yacoub El Mansour vs. HUS Agadir: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $25 9h
Wydad Athletic Club vs. FathUnionSport: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $25 9h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $66 19h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $94 19h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $43 19h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 43¢ $42 20h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $20 20h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 38¢ $25 21h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL No 100¢ $55 22h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY No 31¢ $17 23h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $31 24h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 25¢ $8 26h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 42¢ $11 26h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $19 27h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $9 27h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $10 29h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $11 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $102.31 · official $95.29 · 458 history records