Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:18:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5B 0x5b4e…65dd other 82 markets active 1h ago coverage 467d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$23 (+0%) realized +$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate49%39W / 41L
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$135per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$7
14 days−$10
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 42% +$6
world 27% −$16
sports 15% −$1
other 13% +$13
finance 1% +$20
crypto 1% +$1
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.3% -9.8% 10% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 16 -0.5% -10.0% 19% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 30 +0.3% -9.3% 33% 3% -9.4%
all 80 +3.0% -6.8% 49% 2% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 2% -9.3%
10% -15.7% 1% -18.0%
15% -23.9% 1% -25.9%
20% -31.3% 1% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.92 per $1 lost it wins $1.92
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

467d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses39 / 41
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions2
Markets (closed)80 / 82
History coverage467d
Avg bet$135
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 96¢ 95¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-84%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $126 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $159 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $212 −$2 -1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $143 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $253 −$3 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $151 −$2 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $127 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $165 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $481 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $49 −$3 -6%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $166 +$2 +1%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 11 $152 −$2 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $72 +$2 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $166 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $168 −$2 -1%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W Apr 25 $157 +$3 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in April 2026? Apr 23 $91 +$1 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $136 +$20 +15%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 16 $133 +$2 +2%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $25 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 13 $268 −$1 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $2,240 +$2 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 13 $1,153 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $1,196 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $1,044 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $19 $0 +1%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 11 $9 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $25 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 10 $194 −$6 -3%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 1 Jul 16 $2 $0 -12%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 27 $9 $0 +4%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Jun 25 $14 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 15 $14 $0 +0%
Will River Plate win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 14 $14 $0 +0%
Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 13 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 12 $14 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 08 $14 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on August Jun 06 $3 $0 +2%
Will Robert Negoiță be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 06 $12 $0 +0%
Starmer out before July? Jun 05 $13 $0 -0%
Will the candidate from the People Power Party win the South Korean Pr Jun 04 $7 $0 +7%
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $8 $0 +6%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? May 28 $9 +$1 +7%
Will Solana dip to $140 in May? May 27 $6 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 60-65% of the vote in the South Korea election? May 27 $2 −$1 -79%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? May 27 $5 $0 -1%
Will Tim Stokely buy TikTok before July? May 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? May 23 $14 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $50 43m
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $50 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $126 11h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $126 11h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $159 14h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $159 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $25 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $40 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $79 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $145 24h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $143 27h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $143 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 42¢ $26 34h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 42¢ $39 34h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 43¢ $67 38h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $161 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $161 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $89 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $71 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $22 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $10 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $103 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $36 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $151 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $127 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $127 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $165 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $165 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.52 · official $0.00 (match) · 257 history records