Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T00:35:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5b4c…6952 crypto 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 644d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$49 (+3%) realized +$145 · open −$96
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +65% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +50% what you keep after slip
Net edge+50%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate66%19W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$523
7 days+$668
14 days+$668
30 days+$668
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% −$200
sports 36% +$576
crypto 22% −$1
economics 2% −$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)+49.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +58.0% +42.9% 67% 67% +112.8%
≤30d 6 +58.0% +42.9% 67% 67% +112.8%
≤90d 6 +58.0% +42.9% 67% 67% +112.8%
all 29 +65.4% +49.7% 66% 21% +16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +49.7% 21% +16.3%
10% +35.3% 21% +5.2%
15% +22.3% 17% -5.0%
20% +10.3% 17% -14.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +135% too few recent
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +65% · $-wt +29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +130% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$70 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.62 per $1 lost it wins $1.62
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

644d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$145
Unrealized−$96
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses19 / 10
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage644d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs METANOIA WOLVES (BO3) - Gamers Club Liga Série A June Group C METANOIA WOLVES 42¢ 0¢ $96 $0 −$96 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Jun 23 $143 +$386 +269%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B Jun 23 $191 +$191 +100%
Valorant: KRÜ Spark vs ShindeN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regula Jun 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$2 +31%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5) Jun 21 $100 +$145 +146%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Jan 03 $178 −$178 -100%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Dec 26 $413 −$413 -100%
Will edgeX launch a token in 2025? Dec 25 $22 +$392 +1795%
James Comey arrested by October 31? Dec 20 $16 $0 +1%
Ethereum all time high by January 31? Feb 10 $16 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $100 by January 31, 2025? Feb 10 $10 $0 +1%
Total crypto market cap over $4 trillion on Jan 20? Jan 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will DOGE hit 69¢ by Inauguration Day? Jan 21 $5 $0 +1%
Will MicroStrategy hold 500k+ BTC before Trump inauguration? Jan 20 $37 $0 -0%
Will US gov sell Bitcoin before Trump inauguration? Jan 07 $32 $0 -0%
Ethereum above $3,300 on January 3? Jan 05 $16 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin hit $250k in 2024? Jan 03 $30 $0 +0%
Solana above $240 on December 13? Dec 19 $16 $0 +2%
Will Circle IPO in 2024? Dec 13 $16 $0 -2%
Ethereum above $3,500 on December 6? Dec 08 $16 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k by Sunday? Dec 06 $15 +$1 +4%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November? Dec 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in November? Dec 01 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k by Friday? Nov 30 $15 +$1 +4%
Ethereum above $2,400 on October 11? Oct 11 $14 +$11 +79%
Ethereum all time high in 2024? Oct 05 $18 −$5 -25%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2024 meeting? Sep 27 $38 −$38 -100%
Solana above $135 on September 20? Sep 18 $44 −$6 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A SELL Acend 100¢ $529 1h
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs METANOIA WOLVES (BO3) - Gamers Club Li BUY METANOIA WOLVES 43¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs METANOIA WOLVES (BO3) - Gamers Club Li BUY METANOIA WOLVES 43¢ $31 1h
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs METANOIA WOLVES (BO3) - Gamers Club Li BUY METANOIA WOLVES 43¢ $20 1h
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs METANOIA WOLVES (BO3) - Gamers Club Li BUY METANOIA WOLVES 40¢ $37 1h
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Acend 30¢ $13 4h
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Acend 30¢ $7 4h
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Acend 30¢ $2 4h
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Acend 30¢ $13 4h
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Acend 30¢ $13 4h
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Acend 30¢ $3 4h
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Acend 30¢ $0 4h
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Acend 25¢ $2 4h
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Acend 25¢ $9 4h
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Acend 25¢ $11 4h
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Acend 25¢ $19 4h
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Acend 25¢ $9 4h
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Acend 26¢ $42 4h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B SELL FOKUS 100¢ $382 5h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY FOKUS 49¢ $140 21h
Valorant: KRÜ Spark vs ShindeN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regula BUY KRÜ Spark 40¢ $2 26h
Valorant: KRÜ Spark vs ShindeN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regula BUY KRÜ Spark 40¢ $42 26h
Valorant: KRÜ Spark vs ShindeN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regula BUY KRÜ Spark 40¢ $2 26h
Valorant: KRÜ Spark vs ShindeN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regula BUY KRÜ Spark 40¢ $2 26h
Valorant: KRÜ Spark vs ShindeN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regula BUY KRÜ Spark 39¢ $2 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 26h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY FOKUS 50¢ $51 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.12 · official $0.12 (match) · 128 history records