Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:01:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5b4c…22c0 crypto 97 markets active 0h ago coverage 61d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$551 (-13%) realized −$560 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate36%34W / 60L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$225
7 days−$278
14 days−$41
30 days−$787
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$90
world 20% −$245
politics 16% −$263
sports 6% −$51
crypto 4% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-23.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -8.7% -17.4% 29% 27% -24.8%
≤30d 84 -17.2% -25.1% 30% 24% -28.8%
≤90d 94 -15.0% -23.1% 36% 26% -22.4%
all 94 -15.0% -23.1% 36% 26% -22.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.1% 26% -22.4%
10% -30.4% 24% -29.8%
15% -37.1% 18% -36.6%
20% -43.3% 16% -42.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$25 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized−$560
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses34 / 60
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)94 / 97
History coverage61d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Yes 83¢ 83¢ $37 $37 +$0 (+0%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Over 37¢ 100¢ $5 $14 +$9 (+170%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 45¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+122%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $20 −$20 -97%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $35 +$22 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$4 +184%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$3 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$11 +527%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$4 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$5 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$6 +299%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 +$6 +60%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $204 −$194 -95%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $29 −$29 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $101 −$72 -71%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $64 +$67 +105%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $75 +$98 +131%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $51 −$18 -35%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $26 +$38 +146%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 11 $29 −$3 -10%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $52 −$10 -20%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 09 $30 −$1 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $290 −$120 -41%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $173 −$37 -22%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $83 −$63 -76%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $51 −$39 -76%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $214 +$183 +85%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $25 +$2 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $201 −$42 -21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $38 0m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 2¢ $1 4m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $5 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $5 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 64¢ $10 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 37¢ $5 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $11 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $5 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $35 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $6 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Down 34¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $4 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 36¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.10 · official $50.99 (match) · 264 history records