Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:57:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
5B 0x5b4a…7a3b sports 131 markets active 1h ago coverage 186d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$18 (+1%) realized +$13 · open +$5
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate90%115W / 13L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$120now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% +$26
other 30% −$7
politics 7% +$2
finance 3% +$4
world 3% +$1
tech 1% +$1
crypto 1% −$4
economics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -23.8% -31.1% 67% 33% -10.7%
≤30d 3 -23.8% -31.1% 67% 33% -10.7%
≤90d 3 -23.8% -31.1% 67% 33% -10.7%
all 128 +0.7% -8.9% 90% 13% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 13% -8.7%
10% -17.6% 5% -17.4%
15% -25.6% 2% -25.4%
20% -32.9% 1% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.54 per $1 lost it wins $1.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

186d coverage
Net worth$120
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses115 / 13
Open positions3
Markets (closed)128 / 131
History coverage186d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 128 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 90¢ 94¢ $100 $105 +$5 (+5%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 88¢ 89¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 60¢ 56¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 18 $218 +$2 +1%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $7 −$6 -92%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +20%
Mercer Bears vs. Chattanooga Mocs Feb 06 $111 +$5 +4%
Kansas State Wildcats vs. Arizona Wildcats (W) Feb 05 $20 +$1 +6%
Xavier Musketeers vs. Connecticut Huskies Feb 04 $100 $0 +0%
Will Apvienotais Saraksts (AS) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian Feb 03 $20 −$1 -6%
Syracuse Orange vs. North Carolina Tar Heels Feb 03 $3 $0 +0%
Southeastern Louisiana Lions vs. Lamar Cardinals Feb 03 $50 $0 +0%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-02-02? Feb 03 $41 $0 +0%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-02-02? Feb 03 $40 $0 +1%
Will CD Mirandés win on 2026-02-02? Feb 02 $1 $0 +8%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-01? Feb 01 $5 +$1 +18%
Will PSV win on 2026-02-01? Feb 01 $26 +$1 +3%
Fordham Rams vs. George Washington Revolutionaries Feb 01 $90 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Jan 30 $1 $0 +37%
Liberty Flames vs. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders Jan 30 $1 $0 +4%
Le Moyne Dolphins vs. LIU Sharks Jan 30 $5 $0 +2%
Western Carolina Catamounts vs. East Tennessee State Buccaneers Jan 30 $22 +$1 +6%
UNCG Spartans vs. Mercer Bears Jan 30 $60 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Jan 29 $1 $0 +6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Jan 28 $10 +$1 +8%
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jan 28 $61 +$2 +3%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 28 $1 $0 +6%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Jan 28 $1 $0 +6%
Will Anaconda make 70 million or more domestically by January 31? Jan 28 $7 $0 +5%
Will PPSO win the most seats in the 2026 Costa Rican Legislative Assem Jan 28 $1 $0 +46%
Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + JA21 + D66? Jan 28 $1 $0 +28%
Incarnate Word Cardinals vs. Houston Christian Huskies Jan 28 $1 $0 +3%
Northwestern State Demons vs. Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks Jan 28 $1 $0 +3%
Delaware State Hornets vs. South Carolina State Bulldogs Jan 27 $1 $0 +5%
First to 5k: Gold or ETH? Jan 26 $1 +$1 +54%
Magic vs. Grizzlies Jan 18 $15 $0 +0%
Florida Atlantic Owls vs. Temple Owls Jan 18 $45 +$1 +1%
UC Irvine Anteaters vs. UC Davis Aggies Jan 18 $3 $0 +7%
Kansas City Roos vs. South Dakota State Jackrabbits Jan 18 $56 +$1 +1%
Queens (NC) Royals vs. Stetson Hatters Jan 18 $2 $0 +3%
Iowa State Cyclones vs. Cincinnati Bearcats Jan 18 $2 $0 +9%
TCU Horned Frogs vs. Utah Utes Jan 18 $12 $0 +3%
Fairfield Stags vs. Marist Red Foxes Jan 18 $20 $0 +0%
Eastern Michigan Eagles vs. Bowling Green Falcons Jan 18 $22 $0 +2%
Toledo Rockets vs. Kent State Golden Flashes Jan 17 $55 +$1 +1%
Sacred Heart Pioneers vs. Siena Saints Jan 15 $4 $0 +3%
La Salle Explorers vs. Richmond Spiders Jan 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club win on 2026-01-14? Jan 15 $10 $0 +0%
East Tennessee State Buccaneers vs. Western Carolina Catamounts Jan 15 $20 +$1 +4%
Wisconsin Badgers vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers Jan 14 $2 $0 +5%
Ohio Bobcats vs. Toledo Rockets Jan 14 $55 $0 +0%
Nicholls Colonels vs. McNeese State Cowboys Jan 13 $5 $0 +0%
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions vs. Prairie View A&M Panthers Jan 13 $50 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $100 1h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $100 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $1 8h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $7 10h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 25h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $100 47h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $5 47h
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $10 2d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $121 3d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $18 128d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $100 128d
Mercer Bears vs. Chattanooga Mocs BUY Chattanooga Mocs 95¢ $11 132d
Mercer Bears vs. Chattanooga Mocs BUY Chattanooga Mocs 96¢ $20 132d
Mercer Bears vs. Chattanooga Mocs BUY Chattanooga Mocs 97¢ $20 132d
Mercer Bears vs. Chattanooga Mocs BUY Chattanooga Mocs 96¢ $20 132d
Mercer Bears vs. Chattanooga Mocs BUY Chattanooga Mocs 95¢ $20 132d
Mercer Bears vs. Chattanooga Mocs BUY Chattanooga Mocs 95¢ $20 132d
Kansas State Wildcats vs. Arizona Wildcats (W) BUY Arizona Wildcats 94¢ $20 133d
Xavier Musketeers vs. Connecticut Huskies BUY Connecticut Huskies 100¢ $100 134d
Will Apvienotais Saraksts (AS) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian SELL No 77¢ $2 134d
Will Apvienotais Saraksts (AS) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian SELL No 93¢ $17 134d
Syracuse Orange vs. North Carolina Tar Heels BUY North Carolina Tar Heels 100¢ $3 135d
Southeastern Louisiana Lions vs. Lamar Cardinals BUY Lamar Cardinals 100¢ $10 135d
Southeastern Louisiana Lions vs. Lamar Cardinals BUY Lamar Cardinals 100¢ $40 135d
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-02-02? BUY Yes 99¢ $40 135d
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-02-02? BUY Yes 100¢ $40 135d
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-02-02? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 135d
Will CD Mirandés win on 2026-02-02? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 135d
Will CD Mirandés win on 2026-02-02? BUY Yes 92¢ $1 135d
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-02-02? BUY Yes 96¢ $1 135d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $119.74 · official $118.63 (match) · 322 history records