Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:13:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5b4a…089f weather 430 markets active 0h ago coverage 90d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 90d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$164 (+0%) realized −$182 · open +$346
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate47%200W / 226L
Whale WR63%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$265per market
Trades / day33.1pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$1,750now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 90d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% −$5,815
weather 14% −$8,113
crypto 7% −$882
politics 0% +$67
tech 0% −$138
world 0% −$3
economics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -2.6% -11.9% 45% 21% -19.6%
≤30d 98 +20.4% +8.9% 31% 18% -30.6%
≤90d 415 +2.9% -6.9% 46% 26% -22.2%
all 426 +5.0% -5.0% 47% 27% -22.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.0% 27% -22.1%
10% ← realistic here -14.1% 23% -29.6%
15% -22.4% 20% -36.4%
20% -30.0% 18% -42.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 63% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late +18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$94 vs −$154 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$1,750
Realized−$182
Unrealized+$346
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses200 / 226
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Open positions8
Markets (closed)426 / 430
History coverage90d ⚠
Avg bet$265
Trades / day33.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 426 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will MrBeast's next video get between 52 and 52.5 million views on day 5? Yes 16¢ 89¢ $231 $1,296 +$1,065 (+462%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week 1? No 94¢ 97¢ $216 $223 +$7 (+3%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week 1? Yes 90¢ 95¢ $145 $151 +$7 (+5%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 51.5 and 52 million views on day 5? Yes 14¢ 10¢ $70 $51 −$19 (-26%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 52.5 and 53 million views on day 5? Yes 14¢ 2¢ $206 $22 −$185 (-89%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 53 and 53.5 million views on day 5? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $201 $4 −$197 (-98%)
Will MrBeast's next video get 53.5 million or more views on day 5? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $134 $3 −$132 (-98%)
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 51 million views on day 5? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $201 $1 −$200 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will MrBeast's next video get 50 million or more views on day 3? Jun 18 $5 −$271 -5804%
Will MrBeast's next video get 45 million or more views on day 2? Jun 18 $153 −$262 -171%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 43 and 45 million views on day 2 Jun 18 $27 −$253 -929%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 51 and 51.5 million views on day Jun 18 $480 −$479 -100%
Will Warsh say "All-Time High" or "All-Time Low" during June Press Con Jun 18 $103 +$1 +1%
Will Warsh say "Groupthink" or "Group Think" during June Press Confere Jun 17 $29 $0 +1%
Will Warsh say "Asymmetric" during June Press Conference? Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Will Warsh say "Depression" or "Recession" during June Press Conferenc Jun 17 $147 +$3 +2%
Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $2 −$2 -95%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 49 and 50 million views on day 4 Jun 17 $220 −$1 -1%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 48 and 49 million views on day 4 Jun 17 $2,406 +$208 +9%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 47 million views on day 4? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 35 million views on day 2? Jun 16 $62 −$59 -96%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 46 million views on day 3 Jun 16 $331 +$1,664 +503%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 46 and 47 million views on day 3 Jun 16 $180 +$485 +270%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 49 and 50 million views on day 3 Jun 16 $56 −$272 -489%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 45 million views on day 3? Jun 16 $1,871 −$1,861 -99%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 48 and 49 million views on day 3 Jun 16 $139 +$24 +17%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 47 and 48 million views on day 3 Jun 16 $49 +$13 +26%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 37 million views on day 2 Jun 15 $719 −$492 -68%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 20 million views on day 1? Jun 15 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 39 and 41 million views on day 2 Jun 15 $535 +$1,727 +323%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 37 and 39 million views on day 2 Jun 15 $1,199 +$43 +4%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $72 −$4 -6%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 41 and 43 million views on day 2 Jun 15 $1,047 −$1,000 -96%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30? Jun 14 $95 −$63 -66%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 Jun 14 $21 +$20 +97%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $108 −$75 -69%
Will MrBeast say "Island" during his next YouTube video? Jun 08 $21 −$21 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 61.5 and 62 million views in wee Jun 08 $267 −$265 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on May 26? Jun 08 $181 −$181 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 63 and 64 million views on day 6 Jun 08 $1 −$1 -88%
Will MrBeast's next video get 61 million or more views on day 5? Jun 08 $134 −$133 -99%
Will MrBeast's next video get 64 million or more views on day 6? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 20 million views on day 1? Jun 08 $989 −$989 -100%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 08 $37 −$37 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 63 and 63.5 million views in wee Jun 06 $1,207 −$23 -2%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 62.5 and 63 million views in wee Jun 05 $694 −$690 -99%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 61 million views on day 6 Jun 05 $120 +$280 +233%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 61 and 62 million views on day 6 Jun 05 $1,759 −$45 -2%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 60 million views on day 6? Jun 05 $12 −$5 -40%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 62 and 63 million views on day 6 Jun 05 $511 +$3 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week Jun 04 $1,291 −$1,269 -98%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 57 and 58 million views on day 5 Jun 04 $89 +$687 +771%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 58 and 59 million views on day 5 Jun 04 $182 −$3 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $148 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $24 −$14 -56%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 57 million views on day 5? Jun 04 $544 −$537 -99%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 54 and 55 million views on day 4 Jun 03 $337 +$10 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will MrBeast's next video get between 53 and 53.5 million views on day SELL No 100¢ $5 28m
Will MrBeast's next video get between 53 and 53.5 million views on day SELL No 100¢ $10 28m
Will MrBeast's next video get between 53 and 53.5 million views on day SELL No 100¢ $19 45m
Will MrBeast's next video get between 53 and 53.5 million views on day SELL No 100¢ $4 45m
Will MrBeast's next video get between 53 and 53.5 million views on day SELL No 100¢ $20 45m
Will MrBeast's next video get between 53 and 53.5 million views on day SELL No 100¢ $10 52m
Will MrBeast's next video get between 53 and 53.5 million views on day SELL No 100¢ $17 52m
Will MrBeast's next video get between 53 and 53.5 million views on day SELL No 100¢ $12 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 53 and 53.5 million views on day SELL No 100¢ $30 2h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 53 and 53.5 million views on day SELL No 100¢ $5 2h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 53 and 53.5 million views on day SELL No 100¢ $30 2h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 53 and 53.5 million views on day SELL No 100¢ $12 2h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 53 and 53.5 million views on day SELL No 100¢ $6 2h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 51.5 and 52 million views on day SELL Yes 15¢ $1 2h
Will MrBeast's next video get 53.5 million or more views on day 5? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 2h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 51 and 51.5 million views on day SELL Yes 0¢ $1 3h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 51.5 and 52 million views on day BUY No 79¢ $349 3h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 51.5 and 52 million views on day SELL No 70¢ $257 3h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 51.5 and 52 million views on day BUY No 85¢ $188 4h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 51.5 and 52 million views on day SELL No 72¢ $39 4h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week BUY No 94¢ $28 5h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week BUY No 94¢ $189 5h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 51.5 and 52 million views on day BUY No 90¢ $169 5h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 51.5 and 52 million views on day BUY No 78¢ $16 6h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week BUY Yes 90¢ $145 7h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 51.5 and 52 million views on day BUY No 85¢ $103 7h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 51.5 and 52 million views on day BUY No 80¢ $81 8h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 51.5 and 52 million views on day BUY No 80¢ $81 8h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 52.5 and 53 million views on day BUY Yes 11¢ $6 8h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 51.5 and 52 million views on day BUY No 78¢ $79 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,750.45 · official $1,748.00 (match) · 3500 history records