trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Jun 06 | $14 | +$2 | +17% |
| Nuggets vs. Suns | Apr 03 | $1 | +$1 | +49% |
| Rockets vs. Bulls | Apr 03 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Raptors vs. Suns | Apr 03 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Jets vs. Rangers | Mar 23 | $1 | +$1 | +108% |
| Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Arkansas Razorbacks | Mar 22 | $2 | +$2 | +137% |
| Louisville Cardinals vs. Michigan State Spartans: O/U 151.5 | Mar 22 | $85 | +$85 | +99% |
| Cavaliers vs. Magic | Mar 22 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Dayton Flyers vs. UNCW Seahawks | Mar 22 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Red Wings vs. Panthers | Mar 22 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Magic vs. Hawks | Mar 22 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Vermont Catamounts vs. UMBC Retrievers | Mar 22 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Magic vs. Heat | Mar 15 | $2 | +$2 | +144% |
| Will Netflix reach $455 in January? | Feb 28 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +16.7% | +5.6% | 100% | 100% | +5.6% |
| ≤30d | 1 | +16.7% | +5.6% | 100% | 100% | +5.6% |
| ≤90d | 13 | -11.2% | -19.7% | 46% | 46% | +55.9% |
| all | 14 | -10.4% | -18.9% | 50% | 43% | +55.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -18.9% | 43% | +55.3% |
| 10% | -26.7% | 36% | +40.5% |
| 15% | -33.8% | 36% | +26.9% |
| 20% | -40.3% | 29% | +14.5% |