Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T14:50:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
5B 0x5b46…a44e sports 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 236d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$792 (-44%) realized −$790 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate55%6W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$150per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$211now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$78
7 days+$113
14 days+$113
30 days+$113
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$913
other 35% +$112
politics 4% +$2
crypto 3% +$2
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-38.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +35.7% +22.8% 100% 100% +14.7%
≤30d 2 +35.7% +22.8% 100% 100% +14.7%
≤90d 6 +7.6% -2.6% 83% 50% +3.0%
all 11 -32.1% -38.6% 55% 27% -55.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.6% 27% -55.0%
10% -44.4% 18% -59.3%
15% -49.8% 18% -63.3%
20% -54.7% 18% -66.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 75% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -50% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$191 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

236d coverage
Net worth$211
Realized−$790
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses6 / 5
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage236d
Avg bet$150
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $213 $211 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $132 +$78 +60%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $290 +$35 +12%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO5) - Esports World Cup China Qualifi May 22 $60 +$40 +67%
Dota 2: ex-HEROIC vs GamerLegion (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A May 12 $64 −$64 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 3? May 12 $58 +$2 +4%
Will Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk) win at least one seat in the ne Apr 11 $77 +$2 +3%
Heat vs. Hawks Feb 20 $82 −$82 -100%
Rockets vs. Hornets Feb 19 $190 −$190 -100%
Pelicans vs. Spurs Jan 25 $567 −$567 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Rockets Dec 27 $50 −$50 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 30 $10 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $211.28 · official $211.28 (match) · 28 history records