Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:39:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5B 0x5b43…e587 other 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 178d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$391 (+3%) realized +$160 · open +$231
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate50%18W / 18L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown91%max
Avg bet$255per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$1,421now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$559
7 days−$73
14 days−$73
30 days−$73
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 61% +$233
other 25% +$200
sports 14% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -19.1% -26.8% 36% 32% -12.5%
≤30d 28 -19.1% -26.8% 36% 32% -12.5%
≤90d 29 -18.4% -26.2% 38% 31% -10.5%
all 36 -13.3% -21.6% 50% 31% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.6% 31% -7.8%
10% -29.1% 28% -16.7%
15% -35.9% 25% -24.7%
20% -42.2% 22% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late -36% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$78 vs −$67 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$1,421
Realized+$160
Unrealized+$231
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses18 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions8
Markets (closed)36 / 44
History coverage178d
Avg bet$255
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $500 $731 +$231 (+46%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $300 $326 +$26 (+9%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 54¢ 54¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $100 $79 −$21 (-21%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-8%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 +$103 +101%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $101 +$91 +90%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $102 −$102 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 +$100 +324%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $203 +$168 +83%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on December 21? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on December 21? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $102 +$116 +114%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $101 +$79 +78%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 +$378 +369%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $100 +$5 +5%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$54 +53%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? May 10 $1,627 +$30 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on March 3? Mar 05 $1,610 +$16 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in February? Mar 01 $1,588 +$23 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in January? Feb 01 $1,496 +$92 +6%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 before 2026? Jan 04 $7 +$2 +24%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 04 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 04 $427 +$84 +20%
Will Zcash hit $1000 by December 31? Jan 04 $863 +$12 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $101 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $102 9h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $102 9h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $51 9h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $31 9h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 9h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 9h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 9h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 9h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 62¢ $101 31h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 31h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 31h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $101 31h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $130 34h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 47h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $101 47h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $101 47h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $31 47h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 47h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $101 47h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $102 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $102 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $101 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 46¢ $102 3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $31 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $102 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 99¢ $180 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,420.84 · official $1,420.84 (match) · 88 history records