Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:05:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
5B 0x5b43…bb16 crypto 18 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized −$1 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate69%11W / 5L
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day50.0pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% +$125
other 9% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+26.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +40.1% +26.8% 69% 38% +27.7%
≤30d 16 +40.1% +26.8% 69% 38% +27.7%
≤90d 16 +40.1% +26.8% 69% 38% +27.7%
all 16 +40.1% +26.8% 69% 38% +27.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +26.8% 38% +27.7%
10% ← realistic here +14.6% 31% +15.4%
15% +3.6% 19% +4.3%
20% -6.6% 19% -5.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 62% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +41% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +40% · $-wt +41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +98% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$2 · ×5.49 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×12.08 per $1 lost it wins $12.08
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses11 / 5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)16 / 18
History coverage1d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day50.0
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 70¢ 84¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+21%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$35 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$36 +683%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $79 +$48 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 17 $51 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$1 -5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $53 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $26 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 57¢ $34 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $26 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $42 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $28 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $26 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $33 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $25 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $75 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.01 · official $22.01 (match) · 51 history records