trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Lionel Messi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 85¢ | 86¢ | $100 | $101 | +$1 (+1%) |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 59¢ | 46¢ | $50 | $39 | −$11 (-23%) |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Yes | 48¢ | 18¢ | $50 | $19 | −$31 (-62%) |
| Bucks vs. Lakers | Lakers | 37¢ | 0¢ | $50 | $0 | −$50 (-100%) |
| Lakers vs. Thunder | Lakers | 29¢ | 0¢ | $50 | $0 | −$50 (-100%) |
| Boxing: Canelo Álvarez vs. Terence Crawford | Canelo | 62¢ | 0¢ | $100 | $0 | −$100 (-100%) |
| Cowboys vs. Lions | Cowboys | 28¢ | 0¢ | $50 | $0 | −$50 (-100%) |
| Magic vs. Lakers | Lakers | 77¢ | 0¢ | $1,150 | $0 | −$1,150 (-100%) |
| 49ers vs. Rams | Rams | 57¢ | 0¢ | $75 | $0 | −$75 (-100%) |
| Celtics vs. Lakers | Lakers | 39¢ | 0¢ | $0 | $0 | −$0 (-100%) |
| Lakers vs. Spurs | Lakers | 25¢ | 0¢ | $25 | $0 | −$25 (-100%) |
| Pistons vs. Magic | Pistons | 21¢ | 0¢ | $10 | $0 | −$10 (-100%) |
| Pistons vs. Lakers | Lakers | 38¢ | 0¢ | $25 | $0 | −$25 (-100%) |
| Chiefs vs. Cowboys | Chiefs | 40¢ | 0¢ | $100 | $0 | −$100 (-100%) |
| Hawks vs. Knicks | Knicks | 95¢ | 0¢ | $333 | $0 | −$333 (-100%) |
| Magic vs. Pistons | Magic | 49¢ | 0¢ | $25 | $0 | −$25 (-100%) |
| Spread: Thunder (-9.5) | Suns | 50¢ | 0¢ | $25 | $0 | −$25 (-100%) |
| Panthers vs. Buccaneers | Panthers | 33¢ | 0¢ | $75 | $0 | −$75 (-100%) |
| Packers vs. Lions | Lions | 61¢ | 0¢ | $50 | $0 | −$50 (-100%) |
| Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026? | Yes | 10¢ | 0¢ | $25 | $0 | −$25 (-100%) |
| Tulane vs. Memphis | Memphis | 61¢ | 0¢ | $50 | $0 | −$50 (-100%) |
| Cardinals vs. Cowboys | Cowboys | 47¢ | 0¢ | $100 | $0 | −$100 (-100%) |
| Cavaliers vs. Celtics | Cavaliers | 28¢ | 0¢ | $25 | $0 | −$25 (-100%) |
| Steelers vs. Browns | Steelers | 38¢ | 0¢ | $50 | $0 | −$50 (-100%) |
| Kings vs. Bulls | Kings | 30¢ | 0¢ | $25 | $0 | −$25 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 13 | $101 | +$111 | +109% |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 12 | $25 | −$25 | -99% |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 12 | $101 | +$42 | +42% |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Jun 06 | $26 | −$25 | -98% |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | May 25 | $42 | +$7 | +16% |
| Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | May 25 | $330 | +$52 | +16% |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? | May 13 | $25 | +$21 | +83% |
| Knicks vs. 76ers | May 10 | $15 | −$15 | -98% |
| Lakers vs. Thunder | May 06 | $10 | −$10 | -98% |
| NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Knicks vs. Hawks | May 06 | $28 | +$10 | +35% |
| Lakers vs. Rockets | May 06 | $51 | +$77 | +152% |
| Rockets vs. Lakers | Apr 30 | $51 | −$50 | -98% |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-25? | Apr 26 | $25 | +$10 | +42% |
| Spurs vs. Trail Blazers | Apr 26 | $50 | +$93 | +185% |
| Cavaliers vs. Raptors | Apr 26 | $25 | −$25 | -98% |
| Lakers vs. Rockets | Apr 26 | $25 | −$25 | -98% |
| Spread: Thunder (-9.5) | Apr 25 | $25 | −$25 | -98% |
| Pistons vs. Magic | Apr 25 | $10 | −$10 | -98% |
| Spurs vs. Trail Blazers | Apr 25 | $123 | +$172 | +140% |
| Lakers vs. Rockets | Apr 25 | $46 | +$76 | +165% |
| NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Timberwolves vs. Nuggets | Apr 24 | $472 | −$424 | -90% |
| Timberwolves vs. Nuggets | Apr 21 | $201 | −$198 | -98% |
| Will Keldon Johnson win the 2025–2026 NBA Sixth Man of the Year? | Apr 21 | $186 | +$15 | +8% |
| Hawks vs. Knicks | Apr 21 | $334 | −$333 | -100% |
| Magic vs. Pistons | Apr 20 | $318 | +$16 | +5% |
| Rockets vs. Lakers | Apr 19 | $485 | +$19 | +4% |
| Timberwolves vs. Nuggets | Apr 18 | $629 | +$12 | +2% |
| Champions League Final: PSG vs. Inter Milan | Apr 18 | $222 | −$222 | -100% |
| Warriors vs. Suns | Apr 18 | $936 | +$38 | +4% |
| Panthers vs. Saints | Apr 18 | $150 | −$150 | -100% |
| Commanders vs. Vikings | Apr 18 | $50 | −$50 | -100% |
| Ravens vs. Chiefs | Apr 18 | $200 | −$200 | -100% |
| Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? | Apr 14 | $399 | −$176 | -44% |
| Hornets vs. Knicks | Apr 13 | $500 | +$167 | +34% |
| Jazz vs. Lakers | Apr 13 | $10 | −$10 | -97% |
| Thunder vs. Nuggets | Apr 11 | $873 | +$83 | +10% |
| Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | Apr 10 | $627 | +$248 | +40% |
| Magic vs. Lakers | Feb 25 | $1,150 | −$1,150 | -100% |
| Celtics vs. Lakers | Feb 23 | $75 | −$69 | -92% |
| Cavaliers vs. Nuggets | Feb 20 | $25 | +$49 | +195% |
| Arizona Wildcats vs. Kansas Jayhawks | Feb 10 | $40 | −$40 | -100% |
| Thunder vs. Lakers | Feb 10 | $25 | −$25 | -100% |
| Will Kenneth Walker III win the Super Bowl LX MVP? | Feb 10 | $100 | +$67 | +67% |
| Will Drake Maye win the Super Bowl LX MVP? | Feb 09 | $15 | −$8 | -52% |
| Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? | Feb 09 | $996 | +$331 | +33% |
| Lakers vs. Cavaliers | Jan 29 | $50 | −$50 | -100% |
| Patriots vs. Broncos | Jan 26 | $100 | +$92 | +92% |
| Lakers vs. Mavericks | Jan 25 | $25 | +$89 | +354% |
| Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? | Jan 20 | $150 | +$194 | +130% |
| Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? | Jan 20 | $150 | +$71 | +47% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | +17.0% | +5.9% | 67% | 67% | +41.5% |
| ≤30d | 6 | -2.9% | -12.1% | 67% | 67% | +13.9% |
| ≤90d | 37 | -17.7% | -25.5% | 51% | 35% | -17.5% |
| all | 155 | -8.4% | -17.1% | 45% | 41% | -32.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -17.1% | 41% | -32.5% |
| 10% | -25.0% | 40% | -38.9% |
| 15% | -32.3% | 38% | -44.8% |
| 20% | -38.9% | 33% | -50.3% |