Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:27:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5b40…be01 other 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$71 (+25%) realized +$71 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$65
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+0.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +11.5% +0.9% 67% 67% +11.0%
≤30d 3 +11.5% +0.9% 67% 67% +11.0%
≤90d 3 +11.5% +0.9% 67% 67% +11.0%
all 3 +11.5% +0.9% 67% 67% +11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.9% 67% +11.0%
10% -8.8% 33% +0.4%
15% -17.6% 33% -9.3%
20% -25.7% 0% -18.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 96% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$20 · ×2.14 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.28 per $1 lost it wins $4.28
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$71
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)3 / 3
History coverage1d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 3 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$3 +13%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $179 +$82 +46%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $82 −$20 -24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $25 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $25 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $26 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $26 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $25 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $25 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $51 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $31 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 14 history records