Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:08:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
5B 0x5b3a…31de sports 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$44 (+13%) realized +$46 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day21.0pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% +$23
other 9% $0
politics 6% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.6% -8.9% 43% 43% +5.1%
≤30d 7 +0.6% -8.9% 43% 43% +5.1%
≤90d 7 +0.6% -8.9% 43% 43% +5.1%
all 7 +0.6% -8.9% 43% 43% +5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.9% 43% +5.1%
10% ← realistic here -17.7% 14% -5.0%
15% -25.6% 14% -14.2%
20% -32.9% 14% -22.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 96% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$6 · ×2.46 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.85 per $1 lost it wins $1.85
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized+$46
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions3
Markets (closed)7 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day21.0
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5 Over 13¢ 12¢ $37 $36 −$1 (-4%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $9 $0 -2%
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026? Jun 20 $21 −$4 -21%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 Jun 20 $51 −$19 -37%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 +$1 +12%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $31 +$43 +140%
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba (BO3) - United21 Group A Jun 19 $10 +$1 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 13¢ $38 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5 SELL Over 12¢ $38 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 33¢ $26 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 88¢ $9 1h
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $16 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 49¢ $30 2h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 55¢ $33 2h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 56¢ $74 2h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 SELL Under 35¢ $32 2h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY San Diego Padres 15¢ $1 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 2h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 54¢ $51 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 39¢ $20 12h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 71¢ $22 12h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 32¢ $10 12h
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 20h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $9 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $7 20h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $5 20h
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba (BO3) - United21 Group A BUY eSuba 88¢ $10 20h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.13 · official $96.71 · 23 history records