Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:43:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
5B 0x5b37…05d6 other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized −$2 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +104% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +78% what you keep after slip
Net edge+78%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% +$3
world 39% −$5
sports 8% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+84.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +104.3% +84.9% 67% 67% -12.9%
≤30d 3 +104.3% +84.9% 67% 67% -12.9%
≤90d 3 +104.3% +84.9% 67% 67% -12.9%
all 3 +104.3% +84.9% 67% 67% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +84.9% 67% -12.9%
10% +67.2% 67% -21.2%
15% +51.0% 67% -28.8%
20% +36.2% 33% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 79% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +104% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 69¢ 98¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +48%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$4 +365%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $2 10h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 23h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 24h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.11 · official $7.11 (match) · 8 history records