Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:39:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5b34…9887 other 104 markets active 1h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$43 (-0%) realized −$43 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate8%8W / 95L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$285per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$16
politics 34% −$11
sports 9% −$15
tech 2% −$1
crypto 2% $0
world 1% $0
culture 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 69 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 103 -4.4% -13.5% 8% 3% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 3% -9.7%
10% -21.7% 2% -18.3%
15% -29.3% 1% -26.2%
20% -36.2% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 88% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -9% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×5.29 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses8 / 95
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)103 / 104
History coverage129d
Avg bet$285
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $41 $41 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 24 $30 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $514 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 27 $550 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $246 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $275 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $271 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $212 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $224 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $217 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $210 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $733 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 02 $276 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $450 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $518 −$1 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $481 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $296 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 27 $220 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 26 $287 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $769 −$1 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 22 $246 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $251 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $553 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 21 $224 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $238 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 20 $269 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $259 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $271 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $486 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 19 $209 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $844 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $249 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $291 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $282 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $583 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $293 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $503 −$1 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $215 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $253 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $271 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $239 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $527 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 12 $301 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 12 $455 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 12 $253 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 11 $216 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 10 $530 −$1 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 06 $229 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $242 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $272 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 04 $229 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $41 1h
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $30 1h
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $30 15d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $239 17d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $239 27d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $259 27d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $259 35d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $246 38d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $246 40d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $275 48d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $275 48d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $271 48d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $271 49d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $212 49d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $212 49d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $224 49d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $224 50d
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $217 51d
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $217 51d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $210 52d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $210 52d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $233 52d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $233 52d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $276 52d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $276 53d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $211 53d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $211 54d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $301 55d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $301 55d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $212 55d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.96 · official $40.96 (match) · 294 history records