Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:09:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5b33…d653 crypto 840 markets active 0h ago coverage 22d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 21d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (124 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$2,811 (+16%) realized +$2,811 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate60%528W / 357L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day124.2pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 22d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$476
sports 7% −$122
other 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (124 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-0.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 291 +25.2% +13.3% 51% 45% -25.5%
≤30d 885 +10.3% -0.2% 60% 50% -14.7%
≤90d 885 +10.3% -0.2% 60% 50% -14.7%
all 885 +10.3% -0.2% 60% 50% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover124.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.2% 50% -14.7%
10% ← realistic here -9.8% 38% -22.9%
15% -18.5% 5% -30.4%
20% -26.5% 2% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +17% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$8 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized+$2,811
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses528 / 357
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)885 / 840
History coverage22d ⚠
Avg bet$21
Trades / day124.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 885 Trades
no open positions (105 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $107 −$107 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $28 +$5 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $114 +$59 +52%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 15 $92 −$32 -34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $6 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $3 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $9 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $23 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $4 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $7 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $9 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $0 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $20 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $21 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $4 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $8 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $9 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $7 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $7 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $7 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $7 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $2 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $6 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $15 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $10 19m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.31 · official $0.00 · 3500 history records