Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:08:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5B 0x5b2c…f9f2 crypto 138 markets active 3h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$661 (+11%) realized +$661 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate56%75W / 58L
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day49.7pace
Fees−$39est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$387
7 days+$482
14 days+$610
30 days+$610
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% +$327
sports 35% +$242
other 1% +$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-2.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 121 +8.8% -1.6% 56% 53% -0.2%
≤30d 133 +8.4% -2.0% 56% 53% -0.4%
≤90d 133 +8.4% -2.0% 56% 53% -0.4%
all 133 +8.4% -2.0% 56% 53% -0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.0% 53% -0.4%
10% ← realistic here -11.3% 53% -9.9%
15% -19.9% 47% -18.6%
20% -27.8% 41% -26.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$34 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$661
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses75 / 58
Est. fees paid−$39
Open positions0
Markets (closed)133 / 138
History coverage10d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day49.7
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 133 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos Jun 17 $88 +$13 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $13 +$5 +37%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will A Jun 17 $24 +$57 +239%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $13 +$11 +85%
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears Jun 16 $202 +$111 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$51 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$19 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $30 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $24 +$25 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$15 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $45 +$64 +141%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $23 +$23 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $12 +$11 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$75 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $12 +$11 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$42 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$50 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $56 +$64 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $58 −$58 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $99 +$94 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $44 +$46 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $24 +$20 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $97 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $51 +$39 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $42 +$44 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $70 +$72 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $61 +$59 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $53 +$57 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $90 +$49 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $63 −$63 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $43 +$34 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $75 +$75 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $35 −$31 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$4 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$50 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Eng BUY 14¢ $27 2h
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos SELL NC Dinos 51¢ $11 2h
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos SELL NC Dinos 63¢ $90 2h
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos BUY NC Dinos 52¢ $83 5h
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos BUY NC Dinos 51¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $17 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $13 5h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will A BUY 29¢ $24 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $24 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $13 27h
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears SELL KT Wiz 93¢ $25 27h
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears SELL KT Wiz 93¢ $279 27h
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears SELL KT Wiz 93¢ $9 27h
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears BUY KT Wiz 57¢ $3 30h
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears BUY KT Wiz 60¢ $23 30h
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears BUY KT Wiz 60¢ $169 30h
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears BUY KT Wiz 60¢ $8 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $51 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $20 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $21 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $4 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $11 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $7 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $30 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $22 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $2 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $7 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $4 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $26.00 · 623 history records