Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:53:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5b2b…d4d3 sports 564 markets active 1h ago coverage 240d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,930 (-6%) realized −$2,930 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate43%244W / 319L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$90est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$815
7 days+$815
14 days+$748
30 days+$556
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% −$2,766
crypto 18% −$37
other 9% −$707
tech 0% −$20
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +41.0% +27.6% 71% 71% +31.7%
≤30d 27 +13.4% +2.6% 56% 56% +9.7%
≤90d 92 +0.2% -9.4% 53% 52% -6.5%
all 563 -9.9% -18.5% 43% 42% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.5% 42% -15.9%
10% -26.3% 41% -24.0%
15% -33.4% 39% -31.3%
20% -39.9% 36% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$83 vs −$75 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

240d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,930
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses244 / 319
Est. fees paid−$90
Open positions0
Markets (closed)563 / 564
History coverage240d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 563 Trades
no open positions (161 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 18 $78 +$74 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 18 $52 +$48 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 18 $78 +$74 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 18 $78 +$84 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 18 $78 +$90 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 18 $52 −$8 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 18 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$24 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 18 $87 +$61 +69%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $305 +$320 +105%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $228 −$225 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 18 $27 −$25 -94%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $429 +$327 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 18 $178 +$73 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 07 $58 −$55 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 07 $37 +$98 +265%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $224 −$110 -49%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 04 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 04 $52 +$64 +124%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $101 +$91 +90%
Set Handicap: Kostyuk (-1.5) vs Andreeva (+1.5) Jun 04 $100 −$99 -99%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $70 −$69 -99%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 03 $31 −$30 -98%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 3, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 03 $25 +$5 +19%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $51 +$45 +89%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 03 $49 −$49 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $51 −$50 -99%
Knicks vs. 76ers: O/U 214.5 May 08 $299 −$295 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Alejandro Tabilo vs Francisco Cerundolo May 08 $306 −$300 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 08 $52 −$50 -96%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs Kiwoom DRX (+1.5) May 08 $202 +$72 +36%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Anastasia Potapova vs Karolina Muchova May 08 $303 −$300 -99%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs DN SOOPers (+1.5) May 08 $202 +$105 +52%
Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 209.5 May 08 $198 +$151 +76%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 08 $202 +$125 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET May 08 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 07 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 07 $109 −$105 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 07 $205 +$97 +47%
RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 2.5 May 07 $203 −$200 -99%
Set Handicap: Gauff (-1.5) vs Valentova (+1.5) May 07 $202 +$137 +68%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 06 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 06 $199 +$201 +101%
Spread: Avalanche (-1.5) Apr 19 $50 −$49 -99%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) Apr 19 $50 −$49 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Apr 19 $63 +$116 +184%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $51 +$63 +123%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 19 $144 −$142 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) Apr 19 $111 +$84 +76%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 18 $110 −$10 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 AND Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY 31¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 100¢ $624 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 48¢ $305 4h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $25 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $27 6h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $203 7h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $756 7h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 56¢ $429 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $101 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $100.00 · 1399 history records