Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:55:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5b2b…e02f crypto 513 markets active 6d ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$152 (-7%) realized −$151 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate41%210W / 301L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day11.4pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$22
14 days−$23
30 days−$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% −$79
sports 32% −$101
other 2% −$17
politics 1% −$6
weather 0% −$1
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-26.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -30.3% -36.9% 24% 10% -40.8%
≤30d 22 -33.2% -39.6% 23% 9% -41.7%
≤90d 465 -18.5% -26.2% 42% 31% -17.8%
all 511 -18.3% -26.1% 41% 31% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.1% 31% -19.3%
10% -33.2% 22% -27.0%
15% -39.6% 15% -34.0%
20% -45.5% 10% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$151
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses210 / 301
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)511 / 513
History coverage130d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day11.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 511 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 134 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$2 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +6%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $11 −$4 -37%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $19 −$4 -21%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $2 $0 -6%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1 $0 +4%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1 $0 -6%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1 $0 -6%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $7 −$5 -76%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1 $0 -12%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1 $0 -25%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1 $0 -37%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1 $0 -25%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1 $0 -44%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET May 12 $1 $0 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET May 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET May 12 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET May 12 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET May 12 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET May 12 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET May 12 $3 −$1 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET May 12 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET May 07 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET May 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET May 06 $5 −$3 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET May 06 $1 −$1 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET May 06 $2 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET May 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET May 06 $1 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET May 06 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET May 06 $1 −$1 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET May 06 $2 $0 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET May 06 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET May 06 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET May 05 $0 +$1 +195%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET May 05 $4 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET May 05 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET May 05 $3 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET May 05 $1 $0 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET May 05 $3 −$2 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET May 05 $1 $0 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 38¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 52¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 9¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $3 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 20¢ $5 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 26¢ $6 5d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 5d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 5d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 65¢ $7 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 26¢ $7 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 32¢ $11 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $4 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.00 · official $1.00 (match) · 1509 history records