Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:34:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
5B 0x5b2a…613a sports 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 82d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$649 (-31%) realized −$649 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%3W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$235per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$202
7 days+$202
14 days+$202
30 days+$202
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% −$115
sports 19% −$250
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +150.7% +126.8% 50% 50% +22.0%
≤30d 2 +150.7% +126.8% 50% 50% +22.0%
≤90d 9 +1.0% -8.6% 33% 33% -25.2%
all 9 +1.0% -8.6% 33% 33% -25.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 33% -25.2%
10% -17.3% 33% -32.3%
15% -25.3% 33% -38.9%
20% -32.7% 33% -44.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 93% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$283 vs −$202 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$649
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage82d
Avg bet$235
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $97 +$314 +324%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $483 −$112 -23%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $800 −$790 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $326 +$473 +145%
Will Real Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? Apr 28 $153 −$153 -100%
Will Sporting CP reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? Apr 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Barcelona reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? Apr 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 15 $100 +$62 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $410 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 23¢ $97 2h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $371 2h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 8d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $480 8d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-02? BUY Yes 60¢ $800 58d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? SELL Yes 100¢ $799 61d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? BUY Yes 40¢ $20 62d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? BUY Yes 40¢ $102 62d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? BUY Yes 40¢ $102 62d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? BUY Yes 40¢ $102 62d
Will Real Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? BUY Yes 16¢ $153 75d
Will Sporting CP reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 75d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 26¢ $162 75d
Will Barcelona reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? BUY Yes 30¢ $50 76d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 16¢ $100 82d
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 17¢ $100 82d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 29 history records