Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:34:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

5B 0x5b29…3f32 other 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$261 (-3%) realized −$261 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip

Net edge-21%after slip

Net WR16%break-even

Win rate84%16W / 3L

Whale WR80%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$469per market

Trades / day8.1pace

Fees−$17est.

Kalshi-fit53%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$82

7 days−$203

14 days−$196

30 days−$196

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +16%

net ROI/market (all)-14.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	17	-6.4%	-15.4%	82%	18%	-11.6%
≤30d	19	-5.4%	-14.4%	84%	16%	-11.5%
≤90d	19	-5.4%	-14.4%	84%	16%	-11.5%
all	19	-5.4%	-14.4%	84%	16%	-11.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.1 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-14.4%	16%	-11.5%
10%	-22.6%	5%	-20.0%
15%	-30.1%	0%	-27.7%
20%	-36.9%	0%	-34.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 68% · top 2 85% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

81% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 80% (≥$791) strong on big bets

Persistence

early +2% → late -12% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$45 vs −$305 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.79 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$261

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)84%

Wins / losses16 / 3

Whale WR (big bets)80%

Est. fees paid−$17

Open positions0

Markets (closed)19 / 19

History coverage11d

Avg bet$469

Trades / day8.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 19 Trades

no open positions

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5	Jun 17	$459	+$126	+27%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5	Jun 17	$101	−$38	-38%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	Jun 17	$452	+$59	+13%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$92	−$77	-84%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$899	+$2	+0%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$791	+$4	+0%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$794	+$6	+1%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Jun 15	$2,341	+$486	+21%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$1,297	−$801	-62%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$249	+$1	+0%
Spread: Germany (-2.5)	Jun 14	$99	+$1	+1%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$99	+$1	+1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Jun 14	$370	+$25	+7%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?	Jun 14	$135	+$1	+1%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on	Jun 12	$30	$0	+0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Jun 12	$400	+$1	+0%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?	Jun 12	$110	+$1	+0%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open?	Jun 07	$100	+$6	+6%
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s French Open?	Jun 06	$100	$0	+0%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5	SELL Over	50¢	$63	50m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5	BUY Over	78¢	$101	1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	78¢	$157	1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	78¢	$302	1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	BUY Yes	95¢	$100	3h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	BUY Yes	91¢	$100	3h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	BUY Yes	87¢	$100	3h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	BUY Yes	83¢	$101	3h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	BUY Yes	83¢	$50	3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	15¢	$15	3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	91¢	$46	5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	92¢	$46	5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	100¢	$250	19h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	100¢	$215	19h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	100¢	$85	19h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	100¢	$300	19h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	98¢	$50	19h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	100¢	$1	22h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	100¢	$99	22h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	100¢	$95	22h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	100¢	$43	22h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	100¢	$157	22h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	100¢	$100	22h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	99¢	$97	22h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	99¢	$3	22h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	99¢	$99	22h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	99¢	$99	22h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	100¢	$8	25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	100¢	$187	25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	100¢	$105	25h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 107 history records