Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T16:50:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5B 0x5b29…2b9d other 149 markets active 1h ago coverage 175d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$106 (+14%) realized +$115 · open −$9
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate40%55W / 84L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$22
14 days+$10
30 days+$64
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% +$129
sports 16% −$30
politics 15% +$8
world 2% −$11
crypto 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +6.1% -4.0% 50% 50% +35.6%
≤30d 17 +15.8% +4.8% 35% 29% +44.7%
≤90d 65 +4.4% -5.5% 34% 26% +16.3%
all 139 +1.6% -8.0% 40% 35% +4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 35% +4.6%
10% -16.8% 34% -5.4%
15% -24.9% 32% -14.6%
20% -32.2% 31% -22.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$4 · ×2.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

175d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized+$115
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses55 / 84
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)139 / 149
History coverage175d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 139 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 23¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $8 $10 +$2 (+29%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 22¢ $8 $8 −$1 (-10%)
Will Viktor Hovland win the 2026 Travelers Championship? Yes 42¢ 41¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-2%)
Will John Healey be the next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026? Yes 14¢ $7 $4 −$3 (-46%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $3 +$1 (+32%)
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 Travelers Championship? Yes $9 $2 −$7 (-81%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ismaïla Sarr: 2+ goals Jun 26 $2 −$2 -99%
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals Jun 26 $5 +$10 +197%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Jonathan David: 1+ goals Jun 24 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 23 $10 +$16 +157%
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $5 +$1 +18%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 22 $10 +$8 +76%
Leandro Trossard: 1+ goals Jun 21 $3 −$3 -98%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 21 $4 −$3 -84%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by Jun 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by Wo Jun 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 05 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $10 $0 +2%
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 04 $8 +$66 +807%
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 03 $20 −$1 -6%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Alex Fitzpatrick win the 2026 Truist Championship? May 10 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Truist Championship? May 09 $4 −$2 -50%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $4 $0 +4%
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 Truist Championship? May 07 $6 −$6 -97%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 06 $10 −$5 -51%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Truist Championship? May 05 $22 −$21 -98%
Will Brooks Koepka win the 2026 ONEflight Myrtle Beach Classic? May 04 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Rangers FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $3 −$2 -75%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 04 $3 $0 +7%
Will Alexander Noren win the 2026 Cadillac Championship? May 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 Cadillac Championship? May 03 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Rickie Fowler win the 2026 Cadillac Championship? May 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Cadillac Championship? May 03 $7 +$92 +1321%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Cadillac Championship? May 03 $11 −$1 -13%
Chirayu Rana apologizes for sexual harassment allegations? May 03 $1 $0 +8%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Wrexham AFC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $2 +$1 +39%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 01 $26 −$4 -15%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 May 01 $8 −$7 -85%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 Apr 29 $4 +$4 +101%
Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 29 $10 $0 +4%
Will Mehmood Mirza win the 2026 London Borough of Newham mayoral elect Apr 27 $20 +$4 +19%
Will FC Andorra win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $4 +$8 +206%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $5 +$5 +109%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $5 +$8 +152%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Viktor Hovland win the 2026 Travelers Championship? BUY Yes 42¢ $8 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $31 1h
Ismaïla Sarr: 2+ goals SELL Yes $0 43h
Ismaïla Sarr: 2+ goals BUY Yes $2 45h
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $15 45h
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 33¢ $5 45h
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 36¢ $5 2d
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 Travelers Championship? BUY Yes $4 2d
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 Travelers Championship? BUY Yes $4 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06- BUY 20¢ $4 3d
Jonathan David: 1+ goals BUY Yes 26¢ $3 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? AND Will Canada w BUY $3 3d
Will John Healey be the next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 4d
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 48¢ $27 4d
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $6 6d
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 6d
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 6d
Leandro Trossard: 1+ goals BUY Yes 28¢ $3 6d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 25¢ $9 6d
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $1 7d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $5 10d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 26¢ $4 13d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 14d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 18d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 18d
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by BUY Yes $3 22d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by Wo BUY Yes $1 22d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by Wo BUY Yes $0 22d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by Wo BUY Yes $2 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.62 · official $64.62 (match) · 318 history records