Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:38:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5b27…6e32 world 31 markets active 14h ago coverage 466d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate48%15W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% −$4
other 18% −$1
finance 10% $0
politics 8% +$1
weather 3% $0
sports 2% $0
economics 2% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -1.6% -10.9% 10% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 17 -1.1% -10.5% 24% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 17 -1.1% -10.5% 24% 0% -10.3%
all 31 -2.7% -12.0% 48% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 3% -9.6%
10% -20.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -28.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -35.1% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

466d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses15 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage466d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $35 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $28 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $28 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $29 $0 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $2 $0 -6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $26 −$1 -5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 13 $30 −$1 -4%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $35 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $63 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $17 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $57 −$1 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $1 $0 +7%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $28 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $1 $0 -8%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $33 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $18 $0 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $36 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 15 $2 $0 +0%
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? Jun 24 $14 +$2 +18%
Will Mark Carney lose his seat? May 06 $2 $0 +4%
Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people? Apr 11 $2 $0 +4%
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in his first 100 days? Apr 07 $16 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.27-1.31ºC in March 2025? Apr 06 $16 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in his first 100 days? Apr 05 $16 $0 +0%
Will Kanye launch a coin in March? Apr 02 $15 $0 +1%
Will Jay-Z settle with his accuser before April? Apr 02 $1 −$1 -100%
OX.FUN insolvent before April? Mar 30 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "the blacks" by March 28? Mar 30 $16 $0 +3%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 24 $16 $0 -0%
Fact Check: Did the U.S. hit Iranian spy ship? Mar 23 $16 $0 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 19 $15 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 69¢ $1 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $28 33h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 89¢ $28 38h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $18 45h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $10 45h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $18 45h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $10 45h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $15 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $14 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 61¢ $29 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 20¢ $14 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 20¢ $1 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 20¢ $10 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $26 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 75¢ $29 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 78¢ $11 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 78¢ $20 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 63¢ $34 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 63¢ $35 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $35 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $35 4d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $5 6d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $27 6d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $32 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 36¢ $3 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 36¢ $10 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 36¢ $4 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 36¢ $7 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 89 history records