Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:45:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5b26…501d other 183 markets active 2h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,504 (-10%) realized −$1,309 · open −$195
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate42%72W / 98L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day13.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$1,003now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$123
7 days−$358
14 days−$419
30 days−$204
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$2,129
world 33% +$318
crypto 19% −$20
tech 3% −$165
finance 2% +$84
politics 2% +$79
sports 2% +$319
economics 1% −$117
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -67.5% -70.6% 17% 17% -63.9%
≤30d 36 +2.6% -7.2% 44% 33% -15.9%
≤90d 170 -7.0% -15.8% 42% 34% -19.3%
all 170 -7.0% -15.8% 42% 34% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 34% -19.3%
10% -23.9% 25% -27.0%
15% -31.2% 22% -34.1%
20% -38.0% 16% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$43 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$1,003
Realized−$1,309
Unrealized−$195
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses72 / 98
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions13
Markets (closed)170 / 183
History coverage78d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day13.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 170 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $209 $262 +$53 (+26%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $183 $192 +$9 (+5%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 30¢ 28¢ $200 $190 −$10 (-5%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? No 29¢ 28¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 79¢ 78¢ $79 $78 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $80 $66 −$14 (-18%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $33 $31 −$2 (-6%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $37 $28 −$9 (-25%)
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $72 $24 −$48 (-67%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $39 $20 −$20 (-50%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? Yes 21¢ 3¢ $42 $5 −$37 (-87%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? No 6¢ 0¢ $120 $5 −$115 (-96%)
Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 50 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $38 −$32 -85%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $345 −$341 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $112 +$106 +95%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $75 −$61 -81%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $43 +$4 +10%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $10 −$10 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 01 $57 +$13 +23%
Will Senegal win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-01? May 31 $32 −$32 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $6 +$15 +259%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? May 29 $95 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 28 $261 +$28 +11%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026? May 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $5 +$16 +316%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $21 −$20 -95%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 28 $274 +$31 +11%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $352 +$17 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $17 −$6 -37%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 24 $22 +$3 +14%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 24 $11 +$2 +18%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? May 23 $112 +$36 +32%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? May 23 $70 +$2 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $18 +$187 +1030%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? May 21 $19 +$7 +37%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 19? May 19 $66 −$21 -31%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 20? May 19 $12 −$4 -34%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 19? May 19 $13 −$11 -85%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 21? May 19 $14 −$13 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 22? May 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $10 $0 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $11 +$8 +79%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 18? May 18 $3 −$3 -94%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 17 $143 +$22 +16%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 16 $43 −$19 -44%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 17? May 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 16? May 16 $10 +$36 +355%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 16? May 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 15? May 15 $33 +$42 +130%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026? May 14 $27 +$5 +19%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May? May 14 $101 +$9 +9%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $5 +$6 +120%
Will Trump say "TikTok" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $24 −$23 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 14 $21 −$21 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 29¢ $102 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 41¢ $51 19h
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 30¢ $204 26h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY No 58¢ $10 45h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 5¢ $5 45h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $38 45h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 44¢ $14 46h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 44¢ $0 46h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 44¢ $12 46h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 44¢ $1 46h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 44¢ $3 46h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 44¢ $0 46h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $345 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 51¢ $61 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 50¢ $51 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? SELL No 7¢ $12 8d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? BUY No 20¢ $51 8d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? BUY No 22¢ $24 10d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $47 14d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-01? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 15d
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $22 15d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? SELL Yes 70¢ $70 16d
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 30¢ $18 16d
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 30¢ $9 16d
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 30¢ $46 16d
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 30¢ $1 16d
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 30¢ $4 16d
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 30¢ $27 16d
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 30¢ $6 16d
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 30¢ $9 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,003.31 · official $1,003.41 (match) · 1151 history records