Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:57:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5b24…f36a other 292 markets active 4h ago coverage 55d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 55d only
✗ bot/MM pace (54 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5,231 (-14%) realized −$5,342 · open +$111
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +59% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +22% what you keep after slip
Net edge+22%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate55%153W / 127L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$129per market
Trades / day54.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit16%portable
Net worth$1,337now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$179
7 days+$697
14 days−$1,158
30 days−$2,356
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% −$3,354
world 6% +$273
crypto 3% +$164
politics 3% +$19
sports 2% +$87
tech 1% +$65
finance 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (54 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+43.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 +58.6% +43.5% 62% 52% -1.5%
≤30d 149 +64.9% +49.2% 60% 50% -21.3%
≤90d 280 +58.9% +43.8% 55% 44% -16.9%
all 280 +58.9% +43.8% 55% 44% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover54.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +43.8% 44% -16.9%
10% ← realistic here +30.0% 36% -24.9%
15% +17.4% 29% -32.1%
20% +5.9% 25% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +59% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +49% → late +69% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$77 vs −$116 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$1,337
Realized−$5,342
Unrealized+$111
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses153 / 127
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions19
Markets (closed)280 / 292
History coverage55d ⚠
Avg bet$129
Trades / day54.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit16%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 280 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
GTA 6 launch postponed again? No 81¢ 82¢ $935 $958 +$23 (+2%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 7¢ 46¢ $32 $210 +$178 (+563%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 8¢ 15¢ $35 $67 +$32 (+90%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $26 $26 +$0 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 73¢ 72¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 74¢ 72¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by June 30? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $50 +$6 +12%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $110 +$2 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $65 +$57 +86%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$5 +54%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 14 $250 +$28 +11%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 14 $25 +$14 +57%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $258 +$29 +11%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Jun 14 $15 +$6 +38%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $195 +$87 +44%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $136 +$54 +40%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $145 +$41 +28%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $38 −$35 -92%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $16 +$4 +25%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $35 −$5 -14%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $50 +$15 +29%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $10 +$26 +246%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $30 +$1 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $5 −$3 -62%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $400 −$399 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $5 +$4 +88%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +18%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 13 $5 $0 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $451 −$120 -27%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $101 +$19 +19%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $131 +$39 +30%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $3 −$1 -35%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $369 +$34 +9%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $97 +$31 +32%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $12 $0 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $15 +$1 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets in July 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -64%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets in July 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -50%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets in July 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -72%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets in July 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 -43%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $14 +$37 +261%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $697 +$502 +72%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $357 +$273 +77%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $2 $0 +22%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $289 −$151 -52%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $501 −$500 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $2 +$2 +94%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $1 +$102 +10237%
Will Elon Musk post 580-599 tweets in July 2026? Jun 10 $2 −$1 -42%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $155 −$141 -91%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $697 +$204 +29%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $107 −$7 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 3h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 3h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 92¢ $27 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 73¢ $25 4h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 71¢ $75 5h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $8 5h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $28 5h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $0 5h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $59 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $25 5h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $51 5h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $6 5h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $5 5h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $5 5h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $6 5h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $4 5h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $8 5h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $7 5h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $36 5h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $36 5h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $4 5h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $5 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 77¢ $16 6h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 98¢ $278 6h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? SELL Yes 91¢ $39 6h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 85¢ $137 6h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? SELL Yes 95¢ $15 6h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 85¢ $8 6h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 84¢ $167 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,337.21 · official $1,357.21 · 3500 history records