Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:21:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
5B 0x5b23…7193 sports 154 markets active 2h ago coverage 122d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$350 (+16%) realized +$350 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate45%69W / 84L
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$44
7 days+$82
14 days+$116
30 days+$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$23
other 13% +$313
world 0% −$6
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +15.0% +4.0% 43% 43% +7.1%
≤30d 46 -21.4% -28.9% 33% 30% -1.3%
≤90d 127 -8.4% -17.1% 41% 34% +5.0%
all 153 -8.1% -16.9% 45% 35% +4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.9% 35% +4.7%
10% -24.8% 31% -5.3%
15% -32.1% 25% -14.5%
20% -38.7% 21% -22.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +16% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$6 · ×2.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.66 per $1 lost it wins $1.66
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$350
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses69 / 84
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)153 / 154
History coverage122d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 153 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Bangladesh 34¢ 34¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh Jun 20 $9 +$20 +235%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Netherlands Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Nigeria Jun 19 $120 +$32 +27%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $115 +$12 +11%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan Jun 17 $6 −$6 -98%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $3 +$9 +307%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 16 $6 −$5 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +306%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +325%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 15 $74 +$42 +56%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands Jun 14 $65 +$9 +14%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand Jun 13 $3 +$7 +233%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 13 $5 −$4 -97%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $10 +$12 +119%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 09 $35 +$56 +158%
ODI Series West Indies vs Sri Lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 09 $10 $0 +3%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $8 +$3 +38%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -98%
Will New Zealand win? Jun 05 $30 −$29 -98%
Will the match end in a draw? Jun 04 $15 −$14 -98%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03? Jun 04 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $10 −$10 -99%
T20 Ireland Tri-Series, Women: Ireland vs West Indies Jun 01 $5 −$5 -98%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $5 −$5 -98%
T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands May 31 $5 +$12 +235%
T20 Asian Games, Women, Qualifier: Thailand vs Malaysia May 31 $5 −$5 -98%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $7 −$7 -98%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians May 20 $5 −$5 -98%
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier A: Cyprus vs Switzerland May 20 $1 −$1 -97%
ICC Cricket World Cup League Two: Scotland vs USA May 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Bangladesh win? May 20 $84 +$356 +425%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh SELL Bangladesh 85¢ $29 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh BUY Bangladesh 12¢ $2 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh BUY Bangladesh 29¢ $3 3h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 34¢ $10 5h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh BUY Bangladesh 35¢ $4 7h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Netherlands BUY Netherlands 3¢ $1 9h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria BUY Brazil 43¢ $5 10h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY Afghanistan 12¢ $2 11h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Nigeria SELL Rwanda 100¢ $152 26h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Nigeria BUY Rwanda 78¢ $120 28h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 33¢ $5 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY Scotland 30¢ $3 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $115 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan BUY Pakistan 21¢ $6 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh BUY Bangladesh 10¢ $1 3d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY Afghanistan 14¢ $6 4d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 24¢ $3 4d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 5d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 5d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 5d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 5d
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka SELL West Indies 100¢ $116 5d
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY West Indies 63¢ $74 5d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands SELL Bangladesh 100¢ $74 6d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands BUY Bangladesh 87¢ $65 6d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 35¢ $3 6d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 35¢ $2 6d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan BUY Pakistan 11¢ $5 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.75 · official $9.75 (match) · 429 history records