Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:51:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5b21…1e54 crypto 14 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$49 (-8%) realized −$49 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%5W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day41.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% −$49
sports 16% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -6.4% -15.3% 42% 42% -17.8%
≤30d 12 -6.4% -15.3% 42% 42% -17.8%
≤90d 12 -6.4% -15.3% 42% 42% -17.8%
all 12 -6.4% -15.3% 42% 42% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.3% 42% -17.8%
10% ← realistic here -23.4% 42% -25.7%
15% -30.8% 42% -32.9%
20% -37.6% 25% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 64% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +48% → late -61% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$31 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$49
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses5 / 7
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 14
History coverage1d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day41.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 21 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 21 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 21 $68 −$68 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 21 $102 −$56 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 21 $17 +$16 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 21 $46 +$42 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 21 $43 +$66 +151%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 21 $47 +$19 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 21 $68 +$24 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 21 $53 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$1 -25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $68 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $33 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $17 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $9 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $9 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $14 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $18 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $25 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $26 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 37¢ $45 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $52 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $87 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $8 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $26 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $46 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $109 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $17 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $26 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $66 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $21 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $26 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $7 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $96.87 · 48 history records