Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:18:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5b20…a8e0 sports 9 markets active 6d ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$112 (-20%) realized −$112 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%1W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% −$111
other 34% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-49.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -45.1% -50.3% 14% 0% -27.4%
≤30d 9 -44.1% -49.4% 11% 0% -28.0%
≤90d 9 -44.1% -49.4% 11% 0% -28.0%
all 9 -44.1% -49.4% 11% 0% -28.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -49.4% 0% -28.0%
10% -54.3% 0% -34.9%
15% -58.7% 0% -41.2%
20% -62.7% 0% -46.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -44% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$16 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$112
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses1 / 8
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage8d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $73 +$7 +10%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $94 −$10 -11%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $101 −$25 -25%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $10 −$5 -49%
Bolivia vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $24 −$21 -89%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $189 −$7 -4%
Luxembourg vs. Italy: O/U 0.5 Jun 03 $7 −$4 -62%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $10 −$2 -19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 40¢ $2 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 40¢ $7 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 40¢ $39 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 40¢ $2 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 40¢ $1 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 7¢ $7 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 33¢ $37 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 33¢ $37 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 32¢ $36 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 23¢ $0 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 23¢ $10 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 14¢ $26 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 36¢ $14 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $1 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $0 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $4 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $4 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $4 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $4 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 41¢ $43 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $25 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $25 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 48¢ $26 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 35¢ $26 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 30¢ $9 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 30¢ $14 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 30¢ $1 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 29¢ $24 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 29¢ $1 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 22¢ $9 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 62 history records