Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T17:44:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
5B 0x5b20…99e9 sports 1460 markets active 1h ago coverage 95d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 95d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$983 (+1%) realized +$978 · open +$5
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%681W / 774L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day21.3pace
Fees−$1,081est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$210now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 95d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$1,412
other 6% −$1,051
politics 0% +$257
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 +13.6% +2.8% 55% 55% +5.8%
≤30d 392 -20.5% -28.1% 38% 38% -33.6%
≤90d 1375 -2.3% -11.6% 47% 46% -11.2%
all 1455 -2.2% -11.5% 47% 47% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.5% 47% -11.6%
10% ← realistic here -20.0% 46% -20.0%
15% -27.7% 46% -27.8%
20% -34.8% 46% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$70 vs −$64 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$210
Realized+$978
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses681 / 774
Est. fees paid−$1,081
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1455 / 1460
History coverage95d ⚠
Avg bet$68
Trades / day21.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1455 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals St. Louis Cardinals 50¢ 42¢ $70 $60 −$10 (-15%)
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Under 47¢ 60¢ $45 $57 +$12 (+27%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 Over 50¢ 54¢ $45 $48 +$3 (+7%)
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies No 45¢ 46¢ $45 $46 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 104 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Laslo Djere vs Michael Zheng Jun 24 $86 +$66 +76%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Claire Liu Jun 24 $46 +$39 +86%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Katherine Sebov vs Noma Noha Akugue Jun 24 $46 +$51 +111%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Toby Samuel vs Thiago Agustin Tirante Jun 24 $46 +$31 +67%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 23 $86 −$85 -99%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B Jun 23 $46 +$46 +101%
Mallorca Championships: Luciano Darderi vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 23 $46 +$61 +134%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 23 $86 −$85 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Sara Bejlek vs Laura Siegemund Jun 23 $46 +$50 +109%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. LG Twins Jun 23 $91 +$85 +93%
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro Jun 23 $45 +$26 +57%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Guiomar Maristany vs Jazmin Ortenzi Jun 23 $46 −$7 -15%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Linda Fruhvirtova vs Emerson Jones Jun 23 $46 −$45 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maddison Inglis vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 23 $46 −$45 -99%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Jun 23 $61 +$72 +119%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 23 $46 +$41 +90%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $81 +$89 +109%
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $45 +$26 +57%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians v Jun 23 $46 +$37 +81%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. To Jun 22 $46 +$59 +129%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - DraculaN Group A Jun 22 $46 −$45 -98%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Jun 22 $46 −$45 -98%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 22 $92 −$90 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $46 +$39 +86%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5 Jun 22 $46 −$45 -99%
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider Jun 22 $45 −$45 -99%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 22 $152 −$150 -99%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 22 $47 +$91 +191%
Will Tom Kim finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 22 $77 +$79 +103%
Will Tom Kim finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 22 $32 +$82 +256%
Will Sam Burns finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 22 $74 +$96 +131%
Will Sam Burns finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 22 $3 +$11 +335%
Will Wyndham Clark finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 22 $116 +$21 +18%
Will Wyndham Clark finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 22 $26 +$9 +35%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $46 +$43 +93%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $46 +$41 +90%
Will Sahith Theegala win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Katerina Siniakova Jun 21 $91 −$90 -99%
Will Sahith Theegala finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 21 $46 +$32 +70%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $46 −$45 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Toby Samuel Jun 21 $46 −$45 -99%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Phi Jun 20 $46 +$55 +121%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Anastasia Zakharova vs Lilli Tag Jun 20 $46 +$35 +76%
Will Tom Kim win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Justin Thomas win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Justin Thomas finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 20 $14 −$13 -98%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $46 −$45 -98%
Will Collin Morikawa finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Co BUY No 45¢ $46 1h
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 50¢ $46 11h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Laslo Djere vs Michael Zheng BUY Michael Zheng 56¢ $86 11h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 59¢ $86 19h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Claire Liu BUY Claire Liu 53¢ $46 22h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Toby Samuel vs Thiago Agustin Tirante BUY Toby Samuel 59¢ $46 22h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Katherine Sebov vs Noma Noha Akugue BUY Katherine Sebov 47¢ $46 23h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 48¢ $86 23h
Mallorca Championships: Luciano Darderi vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Luciano Darderi 42¢ $46 33h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Sara Bejlek vs Laura Siegemund BUY Sara Bejlek 47¢ $46 33h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Guiomar Maristany vs Jazmin Ortenzi BUY Guiomar Maristany 58¢ $46 33h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Linda Fruhvirtova vs Emerson Jones BUY Linda Fruhvirtova 50¢ $46 35h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maddison Inglis vs Lucia Bronzetti BUY Maddison Inglis 53¢ $46 35h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY FOKUS 49¢ $46 35h
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. LG Twins BUY LG Twins 51¢ $91 37h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 45¢ $61 42h
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY Eternal Fire 45¢ $46 42h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians v BUY No 55¢ $46 43h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. BUY Yes 47¢ $46 43h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. To BUY Yes 43¢ $46 45h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 41¢ $92 46h
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 47¢ $46 46h
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 63¢ $45 2d
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) BUY Cincinnati Reds 52¢ $46 2d
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $46 2d
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 BUY Under 63¢ $45 2d
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 47¢ $81 2d
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 58¢ $46 2d
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 64¢ $45 2d
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 63¢ $152 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $210.12 · official $210.12 (match) · 3500 history records