Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:19:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5b1f…3086 crypto 304 markets active 0h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$27,075 (+18%) realized +$27,126 · open −$51
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate34%103W / 199L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$491per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$435now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$206
7 days+$206
14 days−$48,406
30 days−$49,773
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$21,773
other 2% +$3,848
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +14.8% +3.8% 59% 53% +7.1%
≤30d 196 -39.0% -44.8% 26% 24% -77.0%
≤90d 198 -39.6% -45.4% 26% 24% -77.3%
all 302 -6.8% -15.7% 34% 32% +1.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 32% +1.3%
10% -23.7% 31% -8.4%
15% -31.1% 27% -17.3%
20% -37.9% 23% -25.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -75% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +18% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +27% → late -41% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$961 vs −$368 · ×2.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$435
Realized+$27,126
Unrealized−$51
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses103 / 199
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)302 / 304
History coverage158d
Avg bet$491
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 302 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET Down 47¢ 44¢ $442 $407 −$35 (-8%)
Bitcoin above 65,600 on June 15, 8AM ET? No 11¢ 7¢ $43 $27 −$16 (-36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 138 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $41 +$35 +86%
Bitcoin above 65,800 on June 15, 7AM ET? Jun 15 $50 +$77 +154%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $41 +$42 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $42 −$40 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $82 +$32 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $51 +$22 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $52 +$50 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $67 −$65 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $123 +$9 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $52 +$77 +148%
Bitcoin above 64,200 on June 14, 10AM ET? Jun 14 $23 −$3 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9AM ET Jun 14 $199 +$52 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $78 +$87 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 14 $103 −$50 -48%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $94 −$88 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3AM ET Jun 07 $120 −$114 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 6? Jun 06 $403 −$387 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 06 $231 +$187 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5AM ET Jun 06 $103 +$28 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4AM ET Jun 06 $310 −$307 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3AM ET Jun 06 $187 −$177 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 06 $150 −$145 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 06 $628 −$628 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 5AM ET Jun 06 $500 −$500 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 10AM ET Jun 06 $565 −$565 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.00 on January 12? Jun 06 $201 −$201 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.00 on January 14? Jun 06 $600 −$600 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.00 on January 15? Jun 06 $800 −$800 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 06 $747 −$747 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 17? Jun 06 $106 −$106 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on January 26? Jun 06 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 06 $415 −$415 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 12PM ET Jun 06 $360 −$360 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 22? Jun 06 $487 −$487 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 10? Jun 06 $598 −$598 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on January 24? Jun 06 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.00 on January 13? Jun 06 $600 −$600 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 06 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 06 $1,399 −$1,399 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 10AM ET Jun 06 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.90 on January 15? Jun 06 $900 −$900 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 28? Jun 06 $1,584 −$1,584 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 30? Jun 06 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on January 21? Jun 06 $190 −$190 -100%
Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 WM Phoenix Open? Jun 06 $2,001 −$2,001 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 23? Jun 06 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 6? Jun 06 $1,063 −$1,063 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $24 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $78 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $42 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $56 13m
Bitcoin above 65,600 on June 15, 8AM ET? BUY No 13¢ $3 15m
Bitcoin above 65,600 on June 15, 8AM ET? BUY No 12¢ $16 15m
Bitcoin above 65,600 on June 15, 8AM ET? BUY No 11¢ $14 16m
Bitcoin above 65,600 on June 15, 8AM ET? BUY No 11¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin above 65,600 on June 15, 8AM ET? BUY No 12¢ $3 16m
Bitcoin above 65,600 on June 15, 8AM ET? BUY No 8¢ $9 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $258 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $77 24m
Bitcoin above 65,800 on June 15, 7AM ET? SELL Yes 71¢ $127 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $41 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $41 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $42 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $21 54m
Bitcoin above 65,800 on June 15, 7AM ET? BUY Yes 26¢ $46 57m
Bitcoin above 65,800 on June 15, 7AM ET? BUY Yes 23¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $82 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $51 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $52 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $16 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $52 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $123 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $52 20h
Bitcoin above 64,200 on June 14, 10AM ET? SELL No 21¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin above 64,200 on June 14, 10AM ET? SELL No 20¢ $19 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $202 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $434.55 · official $434.55 (match) · 1143 history records