Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:01:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5b1e…44e5 other 28 markets active 1d ago coverage 452d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate36%10W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% $0
other 29% $0
tech 9% $0
crypto 7% $0
sports 6% $0
politics 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +1.5% -8.2% 60% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 8 +0.7% -8.9% 38% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 8 +0.7% -8.9% 38% 0% -9.6%
all 28 +0.2% -9.3% 36% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

452d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses10 / 18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage452d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $1 $0 +7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $42 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $28 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $4 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $29 −$1 -2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 08 $29 $0 -0%
Will HNP win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Jul 22 $1 $0 -1%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? Jul 22 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi Jun 24 $11 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be between $190 and $200 on May 30? May 31 $1 $0 +3%
Will Solana reach $300 in May? May 15 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ellen DeGeneres be named in Epstein files? May 15 $11 $0 -1%
Will the Democratic Alliance win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese May 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will Denmark finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5? May 12 $11 $0 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 12 $11 $0 +0%
Starmer out before July? May 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30? May 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will Sam Altman buy TikTok? May 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will Frank McCourt buy TikTok? May 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will Pacers vs. Warriors be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 08 $1 $0 -5%
Will Cavaliers vs. Nuggets be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 08 $9 $0 +0%
Will Oprah Winfrey be named in Epstein files? May 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 07 $11 $0 -1%
Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? May 07 $12 $0 +2%
Mehmet Oz confirmed as Medicare and Medicaid Administrator? Apr 05 $12 $0 +0%
Mount St. Mary's s vs. Duke Mar 22 $12 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $1 31h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $1 32h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $0 32h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $0 32h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 14¢ $15 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 14¢ $15 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $7 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 45¢ $7 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $26 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $2 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $28 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 78¢ $28 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 77¢ $22 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 77¢ $6 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 87¢ $4 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 87¢ $4 6d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 75¢ $14 7d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $14 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 46¢ $6 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 46¢ $22 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 47¢ $29 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $12 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $15 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $2 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $7 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $22 8d
Will HNP win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 SELL Yes $0 329d
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? SELL Yes $0 329d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi SELL No 100¢ $11 357d
Will the price of Solana be between $190 and $200 on May 30? BUY No 97¢ $1 383d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 95 history records