Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:28:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5b1d…1d9e crypto 1045 markets active 0h ago coverage 18d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 18d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (188 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5,283 (+39%) realized +$5,283 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate49%513W / 532L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day187.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 18d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$316
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (188 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 328 -0.3% -9.8% 48% 27% -10.6%
≤30d 1045 -1.9% -11.2% 49% 27% -11.6%
≤90d 1045 -1.9% -11.2% 49% 27% -11.6%
all 1045 -1.9% -11.2% 49% 27% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover187.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.2% 27% -11.6%
10% ← realistic here -19.7% 14% -20.1%
15% -27.5% 8% -27.8%
20% -34.6% 4% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5,283
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses513 / 532
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1045 / 1045
History coverage18d ⚠
Avg bet$13
Trades / day187.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1045 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$6 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$9 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$2 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $21 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$4 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$3 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$5 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $21 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$14 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$2 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $31 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $21 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$7 -32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $7 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $6 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $4 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $11 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $2 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $2 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $2 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $10 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records