Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:22:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5b1c…8895 politics 136 markets active 2h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$779 (+1%) realized +$779 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate27%36W / 99L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$1,011per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$847now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$9
14 days−$21
30 days−$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 44% −$72
other 36% +$26
sports 10% +$846
world 4% −$41
culture 3% −$5
tech 2% −$3
crypto 2% +$8
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 23 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 71 -11.8% -20.2% 7% 1% -9.4%
all 135 +1.9% -7.8% 27% 11% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 11% -9.0%
10% -16.6% 10% -17.7%
15% -24.7% 9% -25.7%
20% -32.1% 7% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 60% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,563) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +16% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$6 · ×6.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.35 per $1 lost it wins $2.35
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$847
Realized+$779
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses36 / 99
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)135 / 136
History coverage141d
Avg bet$1,011
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $847 $847 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $2,833 −$3 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $408 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $4,568 −$5 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $354 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $1,037 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $4,120 −$5 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $1,563 −$2 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $3,158 −$5 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $1,557 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $4,122 −$4 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,125 −$2 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,353 −$2 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $3,140 −$4 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 02 $432 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 02 $640 +$3 +0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $629 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $2,194 −$3 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $695 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $1,132 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $419 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $718 −$1 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 24 $1,033 −$2 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $2,683 −$4 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $1,701 −$3 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 09 $1,690 −$2 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $2,483 −$3 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $1,981 −$3 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 08 $1,628 −$2 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 07 $1,636 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $2,001 −$3 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 06 $1,587 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $1,532 −$2 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 02 $1,520 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April? May 02 $838 +$4 +0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $740 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $2,056 −$2 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $1,564 −$2 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $1,525 −$2 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $2,420 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $2,412 −$2 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $1,539 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $1,570 −$2 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $1,606 −$2 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $2,730 −$3 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $2,477 −$2 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $1,439 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $1,166 −$1 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $2,506 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $1,237 −$1 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $2,150 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $240 1h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $241 2h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $407 4h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $408 6h
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $425 2d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $426 2d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $354 2d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $354 2d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $847 4d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,036 5d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,037 6d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,389 7d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,390 7d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,561 7d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,563 8d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,472 8d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,474 8d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,450 9d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,451 9d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,277 13d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,279 13d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,555 14d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,557 14d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,271 17d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,273 17d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,123 17d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,125 17d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,351 17d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,353 17d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,500 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $847.20 · official $847.20 (match) · 455 history records