Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:45:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5b18…b5ee crypto 248 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (2314 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,501 (+13%) realized +$2,497 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate29%123W / 294L
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day2314.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$512now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% +$1,222
weather 5% +$118
other 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (2314 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-43.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 417 -37.2% -43.1% 29% 25% -9.3%
≤30d 417 -37.2% -43.1% 29% 25% -9.3%
≤90d 417 -37.2% -43.1% 29% 25% -9.3%
all 417 -37.2% -43.1% 29% 25% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2314.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -43.1% 25% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -48.6% 24% -18.0%
15% -53.5% 21% -25.9%
20% -58.1% 18% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -85% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
13.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$21 · ×2.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$512
Realized+$2,497
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses123 / 294
Open positions13
Markets (closed)417 / 248
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$75
Trades / day2314.4
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 417 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on June 19? No 99¢ 100¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 20? No 98¢ 99¢ $99 $100 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on June 20? No 99¢ 99¢ $83 $83 +$0 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Down 44¢ 48¢ $51 $56 +$5 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 21? No 99¢ 99¢ $38 $39 +$0 (+0%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Up 59¢ 52¢ $29 $26 −$3 (-11%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 21? No 98¢ 98¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Down 46¢ 48¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 20? No 88¢ 88¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 77°F or below on June 20? No 99¢ 100¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Up 52¢ 52¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-1%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 23°C on June 21? No 98¢ 99¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 21°C on June 19? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 59°F or below on June 20? No 98¢ 100¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 20? No 96¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 203 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on May 22? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on May 25? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 6? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C or below on June 1? Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 1? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 19 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 2? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on May 26? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on May 29? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C or higher on May 22? Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 2? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on May 28? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on May 8? Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on May 22? Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 1? Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 1? Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 1? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 1? Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on May 26? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on May 29? Jun 19 $95 −$95 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on May 7? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on May 22? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on May 7? Jun 19 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C or higher on May 8? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on May 7? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on May Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 19 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 1? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 18? Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on May 29? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on May 28? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on June 17? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 8°C on May 11? Jun 19 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on May 22? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on May 26? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 2? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on May 8? Jun 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on May 25? Jun 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 1? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 1? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on May 22? Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 2? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on May 7? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on May 22? Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on May 25? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on May 6? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $8 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $7 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $6 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $8 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $7 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $6 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $7 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $4 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $9 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 10m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $512.06 · official $511.20 (match) · 3500 history records