Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T09:51:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
5B 0x5b16…a327 sports 120 markets active 1h ago coverage 598d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ net negative once open positions are counted! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$103 (-3%) realized +$232 · open −$335
Gross ROI / mkt +41% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +27% what you keep after slip
Net edge+27%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%43W / 64L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$360now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$64
14 days+$143
30 days+$146
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% −$626
sports 33% +$582
politics 20% −$406
world 7% −$244
crypto 4% −$117
culture 2% +$708
tech 1% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+27.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -61.6% -65.3% 17% 17% -57.5%
≤30d 33 +54.5% +39.8% 36% 36% +10.8%
≤90d 45 +54.8% +40.1% 40% 40% +15.1%
all 107 +40.7% +27.3% 40% 40% -21.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +27.3% 40% -21.9%
10% +15.1% 40% -29.3%
15% +4.0% 38% -36.2%
20% -6.2% 36% -42.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +41% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late +53% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$33 · ×1.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

598d coverage
Net worth$360
Realized+$232
Unrealized−$335
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses43 / 64
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions13
Markets (closed)107 / 120
History coverage598d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $309 $114 −$195 (-63%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $90 $71 −$18 (-20%)
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-2%)
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? Yes $61 $27 −$34 (-55%)
Will Lamine Yamal score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ 63¢ $15 $26 +$11 (+70%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $25 −$5 (-17%)
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? Yes 14¢ 16¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+18%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? Yes $87 $13 −$74 (-84%)
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $11 +$8 (+256%)
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Yes $20 $9 −$11 (-56%)
Will Solana dip to $40 in June? Yes $15 $6 −$9 (-63%)
Will Tim Walz resign by June 30? Yes $10 $0 −$10 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 53 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? Jun 21 $21 +$7 +35%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 21 $30 −$1 -5%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$35 +344%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $18 −$12 -67%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $36 +$89 +250%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $10 +$19 +188%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $20 +$18 +90%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $26 +$58 +226%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 +$72 +3499%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $15 −$2 -16%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $20 +$22 +109%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.4T and $1.6T at market close on Jun 12 $21 −$20 -96%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $17 +$23 +140%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 08 $26 −$25 -96%
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 01 $17 −$16 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 01 $17 −$2 -12%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds May 31 $10 +$9 +90%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 30 $15 −$15 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 30 $20 +$24 +119%
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 May 29 $20 +$20 +97%
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 27 $15 −$15 -99%
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs May 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $10 +$25 +250%
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim end in a draw? May 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Hamburger SV win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $20 +$37 +180%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? May 07 $15 +$68 +442%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 May 06 $20 +$17 +83%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago Cubs May 06 $38 +$29 +77%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 May 02 $15 −$15 -98%
Will 1. FC Union Berlin vs. 1. FC Köln end in a draw? May 02 $153 +$364 +237%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-02? Apr 29 $50 −$50 -99%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 10 $250 −$250 -100%
Will FC Augsburg win on 2026-01-31? Feb 03 $20 +$20 +104%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-02-01? Feb 03 $16 +$4 +25%
Maduro out in 2025? Jan 07 $52 −$52 -100%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen end in a draw? Dec 02 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Hertha BSC vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern end in a draw? Dec 02 $27 −$27 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 1h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $31 4h
Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? SELL Yes 23¢ $28 3d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs SELL Chicago Cubs 49¢ $29 3d
Will Lamine Yamal score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 37¢ $15 3d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 50¢ $30 3d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 23¢ $31 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 5d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 6d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $15 6d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 7d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $15 7d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $15 7d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 8d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 9d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $4 9d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) SELL Spain 12¢ $6 9d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 35¢ $18 9d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 10d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 10d
Spread: Germany (-4.5) BUY Germany 34¢ $10 10d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $49 11d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $26 11d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes $2 11d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 52¢ $20 11d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 39¢ $13 11d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $15 11d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 47¢ $20 12d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 19¢ $3 12d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.4T and $1.6T at market close on BUY Yes $21 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $359.84 · official $359.94 (match) · 340 history records