Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:15:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5b10…af87 other 261 markets active 1h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$89 (-0%) realized −$89 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%12W / 248L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$193per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$12
14 days−$23
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$32
sports 23% −$18
politics 9% −$7
crypto 7% −$30
culture 6% −$7
economics 6% −$3
world 2% −$2
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 74 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 192 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 260 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$89
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses12 / 248
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)260 / 261
History coverage135d
Avg bet$193
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 260 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 98¢ 98¢ $50 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $129 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $215 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $634 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $334 $0 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $7 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $952 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $678 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $50 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $339 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 15 $214 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $51 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 15 $56 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $241 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $105 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $109 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $371 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $103 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $234 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $258 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $200 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $539 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $389 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $499 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $262 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $315 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $298 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $255 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $250 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $135 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $1,007 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $512 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $329 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 07 $314 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $383 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $136 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $190 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $221 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $118 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $236 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 05 $176 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $194 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $331 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $195 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $185 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $116 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $491 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $179 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $315 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $141 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 02 $190 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $50 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $50 6h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $50 7h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $50 9h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $50 10h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $50 12h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 14h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $50 15h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $50 17h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 97¢ $7 22h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 97¢ $7 24h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $50 28h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 30h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $50 31h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 32h
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $50 36h
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $50 37h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $50 43h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $50 44h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $50 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $50 2d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $50 2d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $51 2d
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $51 2d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $51 2d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $51 2d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $51 2d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $51 3d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $51 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.44 · official $49.44 (match) · 1406 history records