Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:28:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5b0e…9ea6 other 97 markets active 1h ago coverage 176d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$36 (-6%) realized +$2 · open −$38
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate48%40W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$285now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% −$59
sports 8% +$12
crypto 1% −$4
world 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-27.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -1.5% -10.9% 50% 50% -6.7%
≤30d 33 -31.2% -37.7% 52% 27% -14.2%
≤90d 75 -13.4% -21.7% 52% 36% -5.3%
all 84 -19.8% -27.4% 48% 33% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.4% 33% -12.2%
10% -34.4% 24% -20.6%
15% -40.7% 15% -28.2%
20% -46.5% 14% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

176d coverage
Net worth$285
Realized+$2
Unrealized−$38
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses40 / 44
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions13
Markets (closed)84 / 97
History coverage176d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $100 $123 +$23 (+23%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $100 $87 −$13 (-13%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $103 $54 −$49 (-48%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 4¢ $3 $9 +$6 (+195%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+36%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $7 $4 −$4 (-50%)
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+50%)
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $40 −$13 -33%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $55 +$16 +30%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $2 +$1 +36%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Luxembourg vs. Italy: O/U 1.5 Jun 03 $1 −$1 -99%
Germany vs. Finland: Both Teams to Score Jun 01 $1 $0 +34%
Will Ōita Trinita win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Renofa Yamaguchi FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Andorra win on 2026-05-29? May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-05-29? May 30 $1 $0 +6%
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox May 29 $1 $0 +2%
Will Egypt win on 2026-05-28? May 29 $3 $0 +10%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 28 $2 $0 +12%
Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics May 28 $2 $0 +12%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 26 $1 $0 +6%
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox May 26 $1 $0 +18%
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks May 25 $6 $0 +2%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1 $0 +4%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1 $0 +4%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1 $0 +4%
Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1 +$1 +123%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $21 +$3 +17%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $2 −$1 -42%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1 −$1 -61%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $4 −$2 -50%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1 −$1 -72%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will ACF Fiorentina vs. Atalanta BC end in a draw? May 23 $3 +$5 +157%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-05-24? May 22 $2 $0 -11%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-05-24? May 22 $2 $0 -5%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5 May 21 $1 $0 +32%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 21 $2 +$1 +30%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $2 −$2 -78%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-27? May 20 $1 $0 -9%
Hamburg European Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Alex de Minaur May 20 $1 $0 -3%
Geneva Open: Stan Wawrinka vs Alex Michelsen May 20 $1 $0 +28%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Polina Kudermetova vs Viktoriya Tomo May 20 $1 $0 +12%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Joel Schwaerzler vs Roman Safiullin May 20 $1 $0 +3%
Will SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? May 20 $1 $0 -8%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $5 $0 +6%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $1 +$1 +123%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Prem May 17 $1 $0 -1%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Girona FC end in a draw? May 17 $1 $0 -20%
FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 1.5 May 17 $1 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $27 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $71 4d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $40 16d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $51 16d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 16d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 16d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 16d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $6 16d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 17d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 17d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 17d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 17d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 17d
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 17d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 17d
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 17d
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 17d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 17d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 17d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 17d
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 17d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 92¢ $1 17d
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 73¢ $2 18d
Luxembourg vs. Italy: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $1 18d
Germany vs. Finland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 74¢ $1 21d
Will Ōita Trinita win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 23d
Will Renofa Yamaguchi FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 23d
Will Andorra win on 2026-05-29? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 23d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-05-29? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 24d
Will Egypt win on 2026-05-28? BUY Yes 91¢ $3 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $285.05 · official $285.08 (match) · 222 history records