Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T17:22:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5B
0x5b0e…915d
other · 95 markets active 1h ago
2.5score
+$27 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$27 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$146
Realized+$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses36 / 58
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)94 / 95
History coverage479d
Avg bet$120
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit60%
Chart Positions 1 History 94 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$4
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $146 $146 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $160 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $62 −$9 -14%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $658 $0 -0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $20 −$3 -13%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $235 +$6 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $79 −$2 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 08 $168 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $370 +$3 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $160 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $163 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $156 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 31 $55 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 29 $61 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 29 $62 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 28 $140 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 26 $2 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $7 −$1 -18%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 25 $156 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $151 +$1 +1%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $364 $0 +0%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 26 $382 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $96 +$21 +22%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $1,129 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $793 +$4 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $58 −$1 -2%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $1,126 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $306 $0 +0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 15 $1,022 +$2 +0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 15 $1,158 −$2 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 14 $93 −$1 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $1,127 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $129 $0 -0%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jul 24 $2 $0 +10%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Jul 17 $2 $0 -3%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? Jul 17 $19 $0 -1%
Will XRP dip to $2.0 in July? Jul 17 $10 $0 -0%
Will Remco Evenepoel win the Tour de France 2025? Jul 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jul 17 $18 $0 +0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Jul 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Jul 16 $3 $0 +1%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 16 $10 $0 +3%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Jul 16 $6 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jul 16 $4 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July Jul 16 $6 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal before August? Jul 16 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 16 $15 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 15 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 15 $7 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 28% +$1
politics 26% $0
world 25% −$5
sports 18% +$10
finance 1% +$21
crypto 1% $0
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $146 1h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $90 5h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $71 5h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $160 7h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 31¢ $53 39h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 36¢ $62 40h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $154 2d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $154 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $6 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $20 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $0 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $13 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $5 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $51 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $64 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 46¢ $38 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 46¢ $39 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 47¢ $79 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 67¢ $168 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 67¢ $168 3d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $24 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $129 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $153 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $169 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $169 5d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $90 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $78 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -3.3% -12.5% 25% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 20 -2.2% -11.5% 25% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 32 -0.8% -10.2% 25% 3% -9.4%
all 94 +1.1% -8.5% 38% 2% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 2% -9.3%
10% -17.3% 1% -18.0%
15% -25.3% 1% -25.9%
20% -32.6% 1% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $146.39 · official $146.39 (match) · 329 history records