Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:29:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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5B 0x5b0c…d43a sports 805 markets active 1h ago coverage 115d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 114d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$78 (-0%) realized −$80 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate52%418W / 384L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day24.8pace
Fees−$533est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$232now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$502
7 days−$300
14 days+$358
30 days+$969
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$358
other 0% −$59
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -8.5% -17.2% 50% 41% -17.4%
≤30d 181 -0.3% -9.8% 51% 45% -3.8%
≤90d 676 -14.5% -22.6% 45% 40% -19.0%
all 802 -0.1% -9.6% 52% 46% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.6% 46% -10.4%
10% ← realistic here -18.3% 42% -19.0%
15% -26.2% 37% -26.8%
20% -33.4% 30% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$45 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$232
Realized−$80
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses418 / 384
Est. fees paid−$533
Open positions3
Markets (closed)802 / 805
History coverage115d ⚠
Avg bet$56
Trades / day24.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 802 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs KOLESIE 35¢ 36¢ $111 $113 +$2 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qualifier Playoffs ECHO 33¢ 32¢ $94 $94 −$1 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs Gentle Mates 61¢ 64¢ $24 $25 +$1 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 100 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff Jun 19 $120 +$180 +150%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 19 $152 +$193 +127%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs Jun 19 $53 +$39 +74%
Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - ESEA European Jun 19 $89 −$89 -100%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode Jun 19 $74 +$54 +72%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 19 $38 +$37 +96%
Valorant: X-CAST vs DRX Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season Jun 19 $26 +$1 +2%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Jun 18 $162 +$103 +64%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $58 +$44 +76%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 P Jun 18 $130 −$59 -46%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Jun 17 $108 −$3 -3%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $295 −$284 -96%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Ivory - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $230 −$230 -100%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 16 $72 −$72 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $180 −$116 -65%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin Jun 16 $120 −$6 -5%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Spirit Academy White vs Omnix (BO3) - B Jun 15 $175 +$225 +129%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 15 $151 +$140 +93%
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs ODDIK (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A Jun 15 $6 +$1 +9%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Jun 15 $106 +$70 +66%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 15 $72 +$73 +101%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Serie Jun 14 $61 +$27 +45%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 14 $65 −$65 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $79 +$47 +59%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $135 +$67 +49%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 14 $206 −$198 -96%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs Carstensz (BO3) - EPL World Series Southe Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 14 $193 −$187 -97%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group St Jun 13 $107 −$105 -98%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Noir Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Gro Jun 13 $146 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 13 $162 −$161 -99%
Counter-Strike: XI Esport vs MASQ (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group B Jun 12 $72 +$136 +190%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group St Jun 12 $260 −$189 -72%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Jun 12 $8 +$4 +55%
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs Abyssal (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 G Jun 12 $84 +$304 +361%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series Jun 12 $144 +$3 +2%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs HMBLE (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A Jun 11 $164 +$75 +46%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 11 $122 −$120 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $66 +$49 +75%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 11 $138 +$78 +56%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 11 $225 −$195 -87%
Game Handicap: ME (-1.5) vs UCAM Esports Club (+1.5) Jun 11 $247 −$69 -28%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $108 +$126 +117%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - Asia Jun 11 $254 −$29 -12%
LoL: BOMBA Team vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 11 $28 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group S Jun 11 $107 +$217 +203%
Counter-Strike: NEW VISION vs XI Esport (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe P Jun 10 $0 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY Gentle Mates 61¢ $14 1h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY Gentle Mates 61¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S BUY KOLESIE 35¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S BUY KOLESIE 35¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S BUY KOLESIE 35¢ $62 1h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S BUY KOLESIE 35¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S BUY KOLESIE 35¢ $43 1h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epis BUY ECHO 32¢ $28 10h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epis BUY ECHO 33¢ $66 11h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs SELL 4ikibamboni 100¢ $83 12h
Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - ESEA European BUY NAVI Junior 33¢ $89 15h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY INOX Division 29¢ $1 15h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff BUY Virtus.pro 40¢ $92 15h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff BUY Virtus.pro 40¢ $7 15h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff BUY Virtus.pro 40¢ $2 16h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff BUY Virtus.pro 40¢ $2 16h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff BUY Virtus.pro 40¢ $2 16h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff BUY Virtus.pro 40¢ $1 16h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff BUY Virtus.pro 40¢ $2 16h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff BUY Virtus.pro 40¢ $3 16h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff BUY Virtus.pro 40¢ $3 16h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff BUY Virtus.pro 40¢ $3 16h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff BUY Virtus.pro 40¢ $2 16h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff BUY Virtus.pro 40¢ $1 16h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff BUY Virtus.pro 40¢ $0 16h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY 1WIN 42¢ $29 17h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode SELL Walczaki 100¢ $128 18h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL KOLESIE 100¢ $75 18h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs SELL 4ikibamboni 53¢ $8 23h
Valorant: X-CAST vs DRX Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season SELL X-CAST 48¢ $10 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $231.72 · official $231.72 (match) · 3500 history records