Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:48:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5B 0x5b0b…612a sports 546 markets active 1h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$31 (+0%) realized +$46 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%235W / 292L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Fees−$566est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$122now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$535
7 days−$785
14 days−$267
30 days−$2,170
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$470
other 2% +$248
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -7.3% -16.1% 13% 13% -36.6%
≤30d 202 +1.0% -8.6% 33% 33% -27.4%
≤90d 527 +5.7% -4.4% 45% 45% -7.7%
all 527 +5.7% -4.4% 45% 45% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.4% 45% -7.7%
10% -13.5% 44% -16.5%
15% -21.9% 42% -24.6%
20% -29.5% 37% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$81 vs −$63 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$122
Realized+$46
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses235 / 292
Est. fees paid−$566
Open positions3
Markets (closed)527 / 546
History coverage123d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 527 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Over 31¢ 26¢ $52 $45 −$8 (-15%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 2.5 Over 37¢ 30¢ $50 $41 −$9 (-18%)
Romelu Lukaku: 2+ goals Yes 15¢ 16¢ $35 $36 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 89 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ goals Jun 21 $20 −$19 -97%
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals Jun 21 $22 −$21 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $40 −$39 -97%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 21 $42 −$41 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 21 $21 −$21 -98%
Game Handicap: T1.A (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) Jun 21 $53 −$52 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 AND Netherlands vs. Sweden: Jun 20 $32 +$90 +284%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Jun 20 $36 +$730 +2027%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $37 −$36 -98%
Kenan Yıldız: 1+ goals Jun 20 $57 −$56 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $41 +$81 +199%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $26 −$25 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $36 −$35 -98%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $32 +$91 +287%
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Jun 17 $32 +$176 +555%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $32 −$31 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 17 $50 −$49 -98%
Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs FlyQuest (+1.5) Jun 17 $71 −$71 -100%
LoL: Solary vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO5) - LFL Playoffs Jun 17 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Game Handicap: TLNP (-1.5) vs Vitality.Bee (+1.5) Jun 17 $79 −$79 -100%
United States vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs DN SOOPers (+1.5) Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
LoL: Disguised vs Dignitas (BO3) - LCS Regular Season Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Game Handicap: AL (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) Jun 17 $66 −$66 -100%
Game Handicap: TES (-1.5) vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (+1.5) Jun 17 $104 −$104 -100%
Paraguay vs. Nicaragua: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Game Handicap: KCB (-1.5) vs Team Heretics Academy (+1.5) Jun 17 $71 −$71 -100%
Game Handicap: C9 (-1.5) vs LYON (+1.5) Jun 17 $81 −$81 -100%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) Jun 17 $37 −$37 -100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 17 $54 −$54 -100%
Spain vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $54 −$54 -100%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Türkiye vs. North Macedonia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $64 −$64 -100%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - LFL Playoffs Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 17 $54 −$54 -100%
Morocco vs. Madagascar: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $54 −$54 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 17 $116 −$116 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 17 $106 −$106 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $54 −$54 -100%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 17 $54 −$54 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Galions (BO5) - LFL Playoffs Jun 17 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-06? Jun 17 $74 −$74 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Ira Jun 17 $57 +$340 +596%
Spread: Norway (-3.5) Jun 16 $21 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 31¢ $54 1h
Romelu Lukaku: 2+ goals BUY Yes 15¢ $36 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 2.5 BUY Over 37¢ $51 1h
Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ goals BUY Yes 8¢ $20 4h
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals BUY Yes 19¢ $22 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 8¢ $40 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 AND Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1 BUY 20¢ $51 5h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 21¢ $42 8h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 47¢ $21 8h
Game Handicap: T1.A (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) BUY T1 Academy 42¢ $53 11h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 AND Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY 12¢ $53 19h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 AND Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U BUY 15¢ $9 20h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 AND Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U BUY 16¢ $51 20h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will SELL 88¢ $766 21h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 AND Netherlands vs. Sweden: BUY 25¢ $32 27h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 2.5 BUY Over 19¢ $37 40h
Kenan Yıldız: 1+ goals BUY Yes 24¢ $57 41h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? AND Will BUY 23¢ $51 45h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5 AND Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY 5¢ $31 46h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5 AND United States vs. Australia: BUY 3¢ $21 2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 AND Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY 3¢ $15 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $122 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 33¢ $41 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 AND Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY 17¢ $51 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will BUY 4¢ $36 3d
Edin Džeko: 1+ goals AND Breel Embolo: 1+ goals BUY 12¢ $21 3d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 23¢ $26 3d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND Will Czechia win o BUY 28¢ $31 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 1.5 BUY Over 29¢ $36 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $122.11 · official $110.93 · 1103 history records