Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:33:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5b09…e040 other 46 markets active 0h ago coverage 302d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate24%11W / 34L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% +$3
other 20% $0
politics 14% $0
crypto 10% −$1
sports 8% $0
economics 4% $0
culture 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 6 +0.9% -8.7% 17% 0% -8.6%
≤90d 12 +2.6% -7.1% 25% 8% -8.8%
all 45 -1.2% -10.6% 24% 2% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 2% -9.3%
10% -19.2% 2% -18.0%
15% -27.0% 0% -25.9%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.73 per $1 lost it wins $1.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

302d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses11 / 34
Open positions1
Markets (closed)45 / 46
History coverage302d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? No 91¢ 90¢ $35 $34 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $38 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Jun 25 $22 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 24 $38 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $21 $0 -2%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $34 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 27 $32 +$2 +7%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $66 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $4 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $7 $0 -6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $4 +$1 +32%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 23 $35 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 22 $46 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Dec 28 $12 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 17 $3 $0 -4%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 14 $13 $0 -2%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Oct 19 $3 $0 +6%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 17 $9 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 17 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in 2025? Oct 17 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 14 $8 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 14 $2 $0 -1%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 14 $10 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 14 $28 $0 +1%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 13 $11 $0 -0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by October 31? Oct 12 $14 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Oct 12 $14 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in China? Oct 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will Emmanuel Macron be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 11 $28 $0 +0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 11 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 30 $1 $0 -17%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE? Sep 28 $17 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Sep 28 $17 $0 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 27 $18 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 27 $18 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $135K in September? Sep 21 $2 −$1 -68%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 09 $1 $0 -4%
Will Zuriel Oduwole win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 08 $9 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 02 $4 $0 -0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 02 $6 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 29 $30 $0 +0%
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Aug 28 $35 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 28 $35 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $15 20m
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $19 20m
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $6 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $32 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $38 3h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? SELL No 51¢ $22 9h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? BUY No 51¢ $22 9h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $38 37h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $38 39h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 51¢ $20 44h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 52¢ $21 45h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $30 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $4 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $24 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $10 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 59¢ $35 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $32 29d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $9 30d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $23 30d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $14 30d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $18 30d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 30d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 30d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 17¢ $6 32d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 18¢ $7 32d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $33 32d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $33 32d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 32d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 11¢ $0 32d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.39 · official $34.39 (match) · 224 history records