Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:45:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5b09…a8e6 sports 91 markets active 1h ago coverage 161d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$29 (-2%) realized −$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate33%30W / 61L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% −$25
other 27% −$4
world 13% $0
tech 8% $0
politics 5% $0
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +2.9% -6.9% 13% 7% -9.6%
≤30d 15 +2.9% -6.9% 13% 7% -9.6%
≤90d 15 +2.9% -6.9% 13% 7% -9.6%
all 91 -4.5% -13.6% 33% 18% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 18% -11.1%
10% -21.9% 1% -19.6%
15% -29.4% 1% -27.4%
20% -36.4% 0% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses30 / 61
Open positions0
Markets (closed)91 / 91
History coverage161d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 91 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +36%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 21 $43 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 21 $43 $0 -0%
Will Fannie Mae’s market cap be between $300B and $350B at market clos Jun 21 $43 $0 -0%
Will Fannie Mae’s market cap be between $250B and $300B at market clos Jun 21 $43 $0 -0%
Will Fannie Mae’s market cap be less than $200B at market close on IPO Jun 21 $43 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 21 $43 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 21 $43 $0 -0%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 21 $43 $0 -0%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 21 $43 $0 -0%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $43 $0 -0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $86 $0 -0%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 21 $43 $0 -0%
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? Jun 20 $3 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 20 $2 $0 +10%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase February 24-March 2? Mar 02 $3 $0 -2%
Nuggets vs. Grizzlies Mar 02 $5 $0 -5%
Will Le Havre AC vs. AS Monaco FC end in a draw? Feb 04 $5 +$1 +13%
Ducks vs. Oilers Feb 04 $5 $0 +1%
Marquette Golden Eagles vs. Butler Bulldogs Feb 04 $8 −$1 -10%
Northern Kentucky Norse vs. Wright State Raiders Feb 04 $5 +$1 +21%
Indiana Hoosiers vs. Rutgers Scarlet Knights Feb 04 $5 −$3 -62%
Golden Knights vs. Maple Leafs Feb 04 $68 −$3 -5%
Stetson Hatters vs. Austin Peay Governors Feb 04 $97 −$2 -2%
Brown Bears vs. Princeton Tigers Feb 04 $5 +$1 +13%
Northwestern Wildcats vs. UCLA Bruins Feb 04 $5 $0 +0%
Nuggets vs. Bucks Feb 04 $7 $0 +2%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-01-30? Jan 30 $5 −$2 -46%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-01-30? Jan 30 $5 $0 -7%
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-01-30? Jan 30 $5 $0 -7%
Ducks vs. Canucks Jan 30 $15 +$1 +5%
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors vs. UC Irvine Anteaters Jan 30 $5 $0 -4%
Thunder vs. Timberwolves Jan 30 $8 +$1 +17%
Stars vs. Golden Knights Jan 30 $5 $0 -1%
Arizona Wildcats vs. BYU Cougars Jan 27 $5 −$1 -12%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-01-25? Jan 26 $5 −$2 -45%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-01-25? Jan 26 $5 $0 -6%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-01-25? Jan 26 $5 $0 -6%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-24? Jan 26 $5 $0 -9%
Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2026-01-25? Jan 26 $9 −$1 -12%
Warriors vs. Timberwolves Jan 26 $5 $0 -9%
Panthers vs. Wild Jan 26 $5 $0 +4%
Villanova Wildcats vs. Connecticut Huskies Jan 26 $10 $0 +2%
Lakers vs. Mavericks Jan 26 $5 −$1 -18%
Pelicans vs. Grizzlies Jan 26 $22 +$1 +4%
Heat vs. Suns Jan 26 $10 −$1 -9%
Celtics vs. Bulls Jan 26 $10 $0 +3%
Clemson Tigers vs. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets Jan 26 $5 −$3 -55%
Raptors vs. Trail Blazers Jan 26 $5 $0 -5%
Patriots vs. Broncos Jan 26 $5 +$1 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 39m
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $43 41m
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $43 42m
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $43 46m
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $43 47m
Will Fannie Mae’s market cap be between $300B and $350B at market clos SELL No 100¢ $43 49m
Will Fannie Mae’s market cap be between $300B and $350B at market clos BUY No 100¢ $43 49m
Will Fannie Mae’s market cap be between $250B and $300B at market clos SELL No 100¢ $43 50m
Will Fannie Mae’s market cap be between $250B and $300B at market clos BUY No 100¢ $43 50m
Will Fannie Mae’s market cap be less than $200B at market close on IPO SELL No 100¢ $43 51m
Will Fannie Mae’s market cap be less than $200B at market close on IPO BUY No 100¢ $43 51m
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 99¢ $43 53m
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 99¢ $43 54m
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 99¢ $43 55m
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 99¢ $43 55m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? SELL No 100¢ $43 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? BUY No 100¢ $43 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL No 100¢ $43 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY No 100¢ $43 1h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $43 1h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $43 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $43 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $43 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $43 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $43 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $43 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 99¢ $43 1h
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? SELL Yes 98¢ $3 15h
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? BUY Yes 98¢ $3 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 781 history records