Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T15:20:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5B
0x5b08…ab3e
weather · 146 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$113 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$107 · open −$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$50
Realized−$107
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses66 / 77
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions3
Markets (closed)143 / 146
History coverage56d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day10.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 3 History 143 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$133
7 days−$157
14 days−$53
30 days−$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 15? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 14? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 13? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 14? Jun 14 $47 +$8 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 14? Jun 14 $9 +$15 +174%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $72 +$22 +31%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $10 +$9 +88%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $14 +$5 +38%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $60 −$60 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 13 $38 −$38 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 13 $88 −$88 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $44 +$16 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 13 $6 −$6 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$4 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 12? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $44 +$45 +101%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $16 +$5 +31%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $13 +$13 +104%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 12 $44 −$39 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 +$23 +672%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $55 +$17 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $38 +$15 +41%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $36 +$35 +97%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 75°F or below on June 1 Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 11 $23 +$42 +186%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June Jun 11 $4 +$2 +58%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $17 +$7 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $32 +$17 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 11? Jun 11 $33 +$11 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $11 +$28 +242%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 10? Jun 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 12? Jun 11 $10 −$2 -19%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $10 +$5 +51%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $25 +$8 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 10? Jun 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 10? Jun 10 $14 +$5 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 10? Jun 10 $22 −$16 -73%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 10? Jun 10 $3 −$1 -44%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 75% −$159
sports 20% −$8
other 3% +$63
crypto 2% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 15? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 2m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 15? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 2m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 15? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 2m
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $6 25m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 14? SELL No 47¢ $2 32m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 46¢ $3 33m
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $55 1h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 14? SELL Yes 99¢ $23 1h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 14? BUY No 85¢ $27 7h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 14? BUY No 85¢ $14 7h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 14? BUY No 85¢ $6 8h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 14? BUY Yes 35¢ $9 8h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 8h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 14? SELL No 98¢ $94 8h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 10h
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 39¢ $8 10h
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $20 10h
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 53¢ $10 11h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 11h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 14? BUY No 74¢ $28 11h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 14? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 11h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 14? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 11h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 14? BUY No 70¢ $5 11h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 14? SELL Yes 97¢ $19 11h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 14? BUY No 70¢ $7 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 81 -6.5% -15.4% 47% 46% -17.5%
≤30d 115 +0.3% -9.3% 52% 50% -11.6%
≤90d 143 -7.0% -15.8% 46% 45% -13.3%
all 143 -7.0% -15.8% 46% 45% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover10.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 45% -13.3%
10% -23.9% 41% -21.6%
15% -31.3% 31% -29.1%
20% -38.0% 24% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.93 · official $49.93 (match) · 676 history records