Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:16:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

5B 0x5b07…ef8e crypto 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$14 (+28%) realized +$14 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip

Net edge-7%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%2W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$13per market

Trades / day6.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-3.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+7.2%	-3.0%	50%	50%	+14.5%
≤30d	4	+7.2%	-3.0%	50%	50%	+14.5%
≤90d	4	+7.2%	-3.0%	50%	50%	+14.5%
all	4	+7.2%	-3.0%	50%	50%	+14.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover6.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-3.0%	50%	+14.5%
10%	-12.3%	50%	+3.5%
15%	-20.8%	50%	-6.5%
20%	-28.6%	50%	-15.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 69% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +27% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +7% · $-wt +27% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$17 vs −$10 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.66 per $1 lost it wins $1.66

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$14

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses2 / 2

Open positions0

Markets (closed)4 / 4

History coverage1d

Avg bet$13

Trades / day6.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 4 Trades

no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Jun 20	$14	+$23	+163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Jun 20	$15	−$15	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Jun 20	$15	+$10	+66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Jun 20	$5	−$5	-94%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$37	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	BUY Up	36¢	$14	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	BUY Down	67¢	$15	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$26	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	BUY Up	58¢	$15	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$5	2h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 6 history records