Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:09:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5B 0x5b05…c092 sports 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$21,497 (+12%) realized +$21,228 · open +$269
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate64%25W / 14L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$4,469per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$978est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$1,269now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,160
7 days+$11,750
14 days+$20,140
30 days+$20,140
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% +$1,993
other 33% +$20,416
crypto 1% −$2,000
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -23.7% -31.0% 50% 50% +1.4%
≤30d 39 -3.4% -12.6% 64% 62% +0.7%
≤90d 39 -3.4% -12.6% 64% 62% +0.7%
all 39 -3.4% -12.6% 64% 62% +0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.6% 62% +0.7%
10% ← realistic here -21.0% 51% -8.9%
15% -28.6% 26% -17.7%
20% -35.6% 10% -25.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$5,015) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +18% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2,032 vs −$2,191 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.66 per $1 lost it wins $1.66
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$1,269
Realized+$21,228
Unrealized+$269
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses25 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$978
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage11d
Avg bet$4,469
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 55¢ 70¢ $1,000 $1,269 +$269 (+27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 25 $3,015 +$599 +20%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1,008 +$362 +36%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $3,026 +$1,199 +40%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs FOKUS (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B Jun 24 $508 −$500 -98%
Bad Homburg Open: Iga Swiatek vs Emma Navarro Jun 24 $509 −$500 -98%
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Elina Svitolina Jun 23 $1,010 +$505 +50%
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens Jun 23 $3,019 +$779 +26%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $10,072 +$3,086 +31%
Bad Homburg Open: Venus Williams vs Irina-Camelia Begu Jun 22 $1,017 −$1,000 -98%
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 22 $1,013 −$1,000 -99%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $1,012 +$628 +62%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5,016 +$601 +12%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $15,076 +$2,996 +20%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $4,026 −$2,021 -50%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30,378 +$21,346 +70%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 19 $10,108 −$10,000 -99%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 19 $3,041 −$3,000 -99%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 19 $2,024 −$1,180 -58%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $2,017 −$649 -32%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $508 −$500 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $1,006 +$229 +23%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 18 $10,018 +$620 +6%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $2,016 +$687 +34%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $1,019 +$1,759 +172%
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff Jun 17 $1,007 −$1,000 -99%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 17 $1,006 +$260 +26%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2,020 +$965 +48%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10,058 +$2,333 +23%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $4,024 −$1,861 -46%
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 16 $5,015 +$541 +11%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 16 $1,008 +$342 +34%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $20,137 +$6,948 +34%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10,029 −$5,460 -54%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $2,016 +$730 +36%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $3,026 +$1,199 +40%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $1,015 +$983 +97%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,904 +$591 +31%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2,012 −$2,000 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $2,013 +$524 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $1,013 56m
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Naomi Osaka 83¢ $3,015 9h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 73¢ $1,008 23h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $3,026 26h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs FOKUS (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B BUY FOKUS 46¢ $508 28h
Bad Homburg Open: Iga Swiatek vs Emma Navarro BUY Iga Swiatek 39¢ $509 30h
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Elina Svitolina BUY Elina Svitolina 66¢ $1,010 2d
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens BUY Naomi Osaka 79¢ $3,019 2d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 76¢ $10,072 3d
Bad Homburg Open: Venus Williams vs Irina-Camelia Begu BUY Venus Williams 42¢ $1,017 3d
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Nick Kyrgios BUY Nick Kyrgios 58¢ $1,013 3d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $1,012 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $5,016 4d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $15,076 5d
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz SELL Alexander Zverev 40¢ $2,005 5d
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 78¢ $4,026 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $30,378 5d
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 64¢ $10,108 6d
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 55¢ $3,041 6d
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Francisco Cerundolo 26¢ $844 6d
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 60¢ $2,024 6d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 50¢ $1,368 6d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $2,017 6d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $508 6d
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Alexander Zverev 94¢ $10,018 7d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 81¢ $1,006 7d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $2,016 8d
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 36¢ $1,019 8d
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff BUY Coco Gauff 78¢ $1,007 8d
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Ben Shelton 79¢ $1,006 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,269.44 · official $808.32 · 79 history records