Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:32:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5b02…c916 crypto 48 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$99 (+1%) realized +$292 · open −$193
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate67%22W / 11L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$189per market
Trades / day43.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$526now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% +$97
other 6% +$94
politics 5% −$5
sports 4% +$33
world 1% $0
tech 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +10.4% -0.1% 67% 18% -4.9%
≤30d 33 +10.4% -0.1% 67% 18% -4.9%
≤90d 33 +10.4% -0.1% 67% 18% -4.9%
all 33 +10.4% -0.1% 67% 18% -4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.1% 18% -4.9%
10% ← realistic here -9.7% 12% -14.0%
15% -18.4% 12% -22.3%
20% -26.4% 12% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +22% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$29 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.29 per $1 lost it wins $2.29
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$526
Realized+$292
Unrealized−$193
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses22 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions15
Markets (closed)33 / 48
History coverage7d
Avg bet$189
Trades / day43.5
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 95¢ 98¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 92¢ 94¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Trump out as President by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Taylor Fritz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? No 98¢ 97¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 83¢ 80¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $200 $2 −$198 (-99%)
Will Ben Shelton be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? No 97¢ 98¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Flavio Cobolli be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elina Svitolina be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? No 97¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 20 $953 +$42 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 20 $684 +$58 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 20 $90 −$88 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 20 $776 +$16 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 20 $75 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 20 $78 +$98 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 20 $426 +$19 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 20 $175 +$2 +1%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $100 −$1 -1%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 20 $270 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 20 $526 +$11 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 20 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 20 $426 +$13 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 20 $530 +$83 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 20 $488 +$48 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 20 $301 +$20 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 20 $392 +$37 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 20 $361 +$16 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 20 $286 +$19 +6%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) win the most seats in Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by June 30? Jun 20 $16 −$1 -4%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Jun 20 $50 −$4 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 20 $276 +$10 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 20 $151 +$15 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 20 $307 −$100 -32%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $201 +$37 +18%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $18 +$94 +510%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $70 +$43 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $51 +$56 +109%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $86 −$85 -99%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $21 −$13 -65%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $100 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $53 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $51 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $51 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $51 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $50 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $50 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $50 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $25 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $50 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $50 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $50 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $51 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $25 22m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $526.00 · official $878.90 · 334 history records